Best New Musical is a tough category this year.
The Book of Mormon, of course, looks to be the front-runner. It's had over a year to settle in, and comes with the glorious baggage of its Tony sweep. But has it impressed the Oliviers judges as much as their New York counterparts?
Once has been more of a slow burn. Less brash than Mormon, and based on a much-loved film, it's more low key (and the theatre's harder to find). Regardless, audiences have been moved by the show's heart.
The Scottsboro Boys played a short engagement at the Young Vic, and had a huge impact on its audience. It's never going to be a constantly-running classic in the same way as Kander and Ebb's other collaborations, but its historical significance might sway the voters.
And that leaves Charlie and the Chocolate Factory, the only nominee of the quartet to open in London first. Much hyped and with a stellar cast and creative team, a lot was expected of this Shaiman/Wittman project. Unlike Once, though, it's never managed to quite step out of the shadow of its filmic predecessors.
Missing out: From Here To Eternity is the obvious omission - audiences never quite got behind it, but its critical reception was on a par if not better with Charlie and the Chocolate Factory.
Keep up-to-date on Oliviers night (Sunday 13th April) with BWW:UK's live coverage!
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