Can Broadway Rebound in 2023?

This edition of Industry Trends appeared earlier in BroadwayWorld's Industry Pro Newsletter. Want to be the first to know about the latest industry trends? Click here to sign up!

It's no secret that Broadway has not rebounded to pre-pandemic levels. The Thanksgiving week box office gross was $37,475,773, compared to $41,687,333 for Thanksgiving week 2019. (While fewer shows were playing, capacity was also down, as was average ticket price.) The list of reasons for this is long: tourism is not fully back, we have a strong dollar, Covid is still keeping many traditional theatergoers away, at-home entertainment is booming, crime is constantly in the news, etcetera. And the impact of Broadway's slow reboot is coupled with rising weekly running costs caused primarily by inflation, supply chain issues and Covid-related necessities.

Yes, this all leads to shows closing, but its impact is much more than simply that. Investors are skittish; shows are entering previews extremely short of their capitalization mark and producers are fundraising right until opening. Entrenched theatrical producers are bringing on more and more celebrities from other fields and billing them as producers, a move aimed at generating publicity. Shows are increasing their capitalization goals not only because of increased costs but also because of the need for increased reserves. Traditionally a reserve was 10% of a show's capitalization, with some producers going higher so they could weather more storms or jump more immediately on an opportunity. Now several producers are budgeting well over 20% for their reserve, knowing that the early weeks and months of a show's run (typically not a goldmine time unless you have a bankable star) will likely be even harder than they were three years ago.

The big question in the industry for months has been -- what can be done? No one is sure. Many think nothing. Several producers, however, have a pipe dream. They remain angry at The Broadway League for what they consider a botched reopening ad campaign. The campaign, "This is Broadway," leaned heavily into nostalgia and Oprah rather than focusing primarily on the returning shows. These producers wish there could be a new campaign, more along the lines of the original "I Love New York" Broadway commercial that was so successful in the late 70s and into the 80s. (A suggestion Michael Riedel publicly floated last summer in the New York Post before "This is Broadway" launched.) They hope ideally it could be part of a bigger state or city campaign, just as "I Love New York" was, and are approaching contacts accordingly. (New York City spent $30 million on "NYC Reawakens" in summer 2021, but none of the relevant ads truly showcased Broadway offerings.) The effort would indeed need to be something the government would sponsor, because The Broadway League is not into it.

Charlotte St. Martin, President of The Broadway League, explained the League was focused on awareness-raising efforts such as Curtain Up, a festival which launched the season, and promotions such as Kids Night on Broadway or Broadway Week (which is presented in collaboration with the city's marketing arm, NYC & Co.).

"We are not currently planning on a big ad campaign as we did for Broadway to return last year," St. Martin emailed. "That's not really what the League does except in extremely unusual circumstances."

Want to be the first to know about the latest industry trends? Click here to sign up for BroadwayWorld's Industry Pro Newsletter.