WICKED Movie Aiming for $80-85 Million Opening Weekend

As we inch closer to Wicked's highly anticipated opening this month, box office predictions continue to come in. As of October 31, the November 22 opening weekend is looking to bring in an impressive $80-$85 million, according to reports at Deadline and The Hollywood Reporter, respectively.

This is up significantly from a previous report of $67M-$74M, which was predicted in mid-October. However, the box office prediction still lags behind Disney's Moana 2, which hits theaters Thanksgiving weekend a week later. That film, a sequel to Disney's 2016 hit, is estimated to bring in a whopping $100+ million over its five-day holiday weekend. A previous report indicated that the film would open with $75M-$82M between Friday and Sunday, though these numbers have yet to be updated. 

Earlier this year, the Mean Girls musical film opened with $28M over the MLK holiday weekend earlier this year. During 2023's holiday season, the movie musical Wonka grossed $43M during its opening weekend. 

Gladiator II, another tentpole film opening on the same day as Wicked, is tracking to earn more than $65 million at the box office. The Ridley Scott-directed movie is a sequel to the 2000 hit starring Russell Crowe. Earlier this year, there was talk of Wicked and Gladiator II following in the footsteps of the "Barbenheimer" phenomenon of 2023, but discussions of this nature seemed to have died down. 

The Wicked film adaptation stars Cynthia Erivo as Elphaba and Ariana Grande as Glinda. Joining them is Jonathan Bailey as Fiyero, Ethan Slater as Boq, Michelle Yeoh as Madame Morrible, and Jeff Goldblum as the Wizard. The first part will be released on November 22, 2024, with Part Two hitting theaters on November 21, 2025.

Walt Disney Animation Studios’ epic animated musical Moana 2 reunites Moana (voice of Cravalho) and Maui (voice of Johnson) three years later for an expansive new voyage alongside a crew of unlikely seafarers. With music by Abigail Barlow and Emily Bear, Moana 2 opens in theaters on November 27, 2024. The first Moana debuted in theaters on Nov. 23, 2016, grossing nearly $644 million in global box office.