Tonys Bring a Boost, But Uncertainty Remains

In the “The Tonys Are Too Big to Fail” conversation, what no one mentioned was that the industry no longer knows the true impact of the awards. Ever since the pandemic, producers seem to never be able to clearly answer the “what brings in major money” question beyond naming film and TV stars.

It used to be that there were certain things that necessarily sold tickets. Reviews typically helped, but they weren’t a 100% definite ticket mover. There were always acclaimed productions that simply failed at the box office. Morning shows were a big showcase that frequently moved tickets. CBS Sunday Morning in particular was virtually guaranteed to lead to a substantial box office boost. But since theater has returned, things haven’t been as clear-cut. Appearances often lead to bumps, just small ones. As one industry insider stated: “You can no longer say this is the opportunity that will work. The Thanksgiving Day Parade is still up there, but I wouldn’t trade a kidney for it like I would have in 2015.”

No one knows exactly why this is. It perhaps intersects with the trend of more theatergoers buying tickets last minute. If you aren’t planning ahead, you aren’t buying tickets right after a telecast. (In that way, these broadcast opportunities could be helping with later purchases, but that would need to be measured by ticket-buying surveys.)

The Tony nominations undoubtedly helped shows. SHUCKED, which opened in late spring, was never over $600,000 prior to the nominations, but the first full week after them it was over $700,000, where it has remained each 8-performance week. (This is, I’m told, over break-even.) However, it’s not as if the nominations meant box office gold. The eventual Best Play and Best Musical winners, LEOPOLDSTADT and KIMBERLY AKIMBO, which both began performances in the fall, went up from where they were pre-nominations, but neither show recorded its best week post-nominations. 

And then there were the awards. Despite reports that the ratings were up over 2022, adjustments in the final same-day broadcast ratings indicated a slight 2% decline, according to The Hollywood Reporter. CBS reported streaming was up 13%, meaning more people total may have watched the show, but it is impossible to verify.

In prior years, I could get some lead producers to comment on wrap increases on the record in the days following the broadcast. This year, the best I got was “contact me next week," indicating a desire to fully analyze before discussing. (This being a weekly column, I could not wait.) On background, investors told me that SOME LIKE IT HOT and & JULIET both had their largest bumps within an hour of their live performances; the former’s lift petered out quickly though. I heard that SHUCKED’s Monday was about 60% better than the Monday prior. A KIMBERLY AKIMBO source told me their Monday number was over three times their average. But all the new musicals featured on the Tonys were on TKTS over the weekend. And what I’m not hearing is people super confident in a sustained rise.  

There is hope though. People are still streaming the Tonys and visiting websites for highlights. Shows have just started running their “Tony winning” ads (any Tony counts for those). I’m hearing a couple of productions will post closing notices this week, but that isn’t a post-Tony bloodbath, evidence that producers are still investing in their shows. And we're entering tourist-heavy months.

The world is continuing to reset. You see that across the country, in multiple industries, so it’s no surprise that June 11 didn’t solve everything.