Subscription Numbers Have Plummeted Across the Country, But There Might Be Hope

Even before the pandemic, there was talk that the subscription model supporting many non-profits was dying out. In 2000, Theatre Communications Group proclaimed that for the first time since it started examining the topic in the 1980s, average single-ticket income exceeded average subscription income in its studied theaters. According to data collected by SMU DataArts, theaters sold 28% fewer subscription tickets in 2017 as compared to 2004.

It wasn’t all bad news—some theaters experienced subscription growth over the years. But the industry was rightfully worried pre-pandemic and had already begun tinkering with models. Subscriptions represent guaranteed funds, so theaters prefer them, even when more costly single tickets eventually make up the gap. (And single tickets usually do not make up the gap. In that same 2004 to 2017 period, there were only 3% more single-ticket buyers across studied theaters.)

Therefore, even prior to the pandemic, theaters were working on how to make subscriptions more attractive. A few packaged shows with local restaurant deals, there were special opening night packages, lower cost preview packages, and more. To keep up with the streaming world, Phoenix Theatre Company instituted an “all access” pass pre-pandemic, meaning you spend a certain amount and can go whenever you want, however many times you want (subject to ticket availability). (Phoenix was not the first to try such a model. For example, in 2008, Seattle’s ACT Theatre launched a pass that had a $30 per month flat fee for admission to almost everything. The program is credited with helping the theater survive the Great Recession. It no longer exists.)

In the decade prior to the pandemic, theaters had kept renewal rates within a reasonably consistent 70%-75% range, according to Theatre Communications Group data, but had trouble signing up new subscribers. Then the pandemic happened and things got a lot worse for most theaters, as I’ve previously detailed. Before my last story on this topic, I spoke to 25 individuals who previously had regional theater subscriptions about why they didn’t come back post-reopening. Of those I spoke to, which admittedly was a small sample size, most simply hadn’t felt the need to re-up. That of course is partially the result of programing. 

“I watch more TV now and I haven’t felt the seasons were full of shows I needed to get to in advance,” said Leslie Pinkam, who previously subscribed to two major LA-area non-profits, echoing the sentiment of many others.

Data from multiple theaters has supported anecdotal evidence that audiences greatly prefer familiar feel-good offerings currently; seasons filled with those types of shows do somewhat better.

“It has been reflected in some of the surveys we’ve done—people don’t want challenging work from their regional theaters,” Jennifer Sowinski Nemeth of JCA Arts Marketing said. “They don't want the thing that's going to make them think about the state of the world—that’s why Broadway musical tours are doing well. People want escapism. I think that's hitting regional theaters particularly hard in a way that's not hitting our orchestra clients.”

There were only a couple of folks I spoke to that cited a perceived politicization of theater as a turnoff, but I'm unsure how accurate a gauge that is of the magnitude of the problem, as such opinions are easier to express in anonymous surveys. Some people cited increasingly unpredictable scheduling in their personal and/or professional lives. A few subscribers referenced health concerns. (Though I heard just a bit about this from former subscribers, theater executives tell me health issues continue to appear in surveys—and last season some patrons were split on masks, with many not wanting to attend wearing a mask and others only wanting to attend if patrons were masked.) None of these folks said they’d never return to the theater, but most had not.

Interestingly, national surveys show orchestras rebounded much quicker post-shutdown than theaters have. One reason is the escapism factor referred to above, but another is thought to be that orchestras returned sooner to outdoor venues. And what I’ve heard anecdotally from theaters is that those that had outdoor spaces, and began performing at them soon after the shutdown, were able to retain subscribers better. (Relatedly, I want to note that it is hard to compare theater to sports or music concerts because there are generally more at-home or outdoor ways to engage with sports or music.)

Theaters trying to rebuild their bases are looking for innovative ways to do just that. As per a JCA Arts Marketing study, since reopening, sales numbers are growing for subscription packages that offer flexibility, whereas traditional package sales continue to decline. According to Julia Haase, Director of Patron Advancement at Phoenix Theatre Company, in the 2019-2020 season, 54% of subscription sales were traditional package sales. (The theater was only closed for five months before transitioning outdoors.) In 2021-2022, only 40% of subscribers bought a traditional package, last season that rose to 45%, but that still leaves the majority of subscribers on a more flexible plan. Haase credits the growth in the “All Access” and flex plans with Phoenix’s subscription rate being around where it was pre-pandemic. (The company is down in single ticket sales, but Haase stated those are inching upward. Phoenix also continues to benefit from population growth.)

Post-pandemic, Woolly Mammoth Theatre transitioned fully from a traditional subscription package to a yearly all-access Golden Ticket program. (They also offered a flexible four-ticket package in the returning seasons.) With a Golden Ticket, $375 gets you a seat to almost everything at Woolly, as many times as you want (subject to availability). There is also a lower price $250 option if you cannot afford to pay more. In the upcoming season, they are souping up the program, adding special Golden Ticket performances with talkbacks and other perks.

“I’m proud that our 2022-23 season had around 83% of the subscription and package sales when compared to our most recent pre-pandemic season,” Woolly Mammoth Director of Marketing Rebecca Calkin stated over email. “This growth seems to be relatively high, with many industry reports showing an average of 50-70% of pre-pandemic subscription sales.”

That is not to say flexible packages are a cure-all. Super Secret Arts in Gowanus officially launched in March 2022 to much fanfare—it was to be the “Netflix of theater” with a monthly price allowing access to around 25 shows per month. It shuttered in July 2022.

The Zach Theater in Austin, Texas launched “Zach XP,” a $39/month per member all-access pass that only requires a 3-month commitment prior to cancelation. According to a representative from the company, the company’s subscription rate is still down about 30% as compared to 2019. However, they remain optimistic about Zach XP. While traditional subscriptions continue to see a sales decline, Zach XP is growing in popularity. It made up only about 10% of subscriptions by the end of its inaugural 2021-2022 season, but it is now 25% of total subscriptions for the upcoming 2023-24 season.

Steppenwolf Theatre Company also launched new flex packages in addition to its classic subscriptions, which are down 40% since pre-pandemic. Its Black Card gives you six tickets—all-access is $360 a year, weeknight is $240 and previews only is $120. Its Red Card is all access for 20-somethings for $99. The flexible subscriptions only represented about 15% of overall subscriptions in the 2022-2023 season and “a very small percentage of our overall earned income,” according to Director of Marketing and Communication PennyMaria Jackson. But she noted the plans are growing in popularity and the purchasers are younger, so the company is hoping the Cards will help expand the theatergoing audience.

Not every theater has seen a boon for flexible options. Prior to the pandemic, about 14% of total subscriptions at the historic Booth Tarkington Civic Theatre in Carmel, Indiana were flex subscriptions, according to Director of Development and Administration Julia Bonnett. Flex subscriptions now comprise only 12% of the subscription percentage. Subscriptions are considerably down overall as well, though the company is pushing a lower price “opening weekend” subscription which it is hoping will grow and also help with word-of-mouth for individual ticket sales.

The general sentiment, even among theaters that have yet to strike gold with flex plans, is that audience members are seeking more flexible options. Utilization of subscription tickets is also down post-pandemic, but according to JCA Arts Marketing, is higher with flexible plans than it is with traditional plans. For many reasons, we want people not to just buy subscriptions, but also to attend the theater. That desire must lead to a focus on flexibility as the community remains in recovery mode.

Theaters, not exactly known as hubs of innovation, are trying. I spoke to theater executives about all kinds of new plans. One theater director spoke to me about launching a four drink, two person flexible discount preview plan, so one person would bring a friend and hang out a little before a show. Another chatted with me about the “Pay It Forward” plan being used so effectively for the controversial film Sound of Freedom—hoping that maybe wealthier patrons would chip in to buy a lower-price subscription for someone else. (Thoughts on the film itself aside, theaters could probably learn a lot from even the “How to Support Sound of Freedom” webpage.) I heard about a free community college night, with an emphasis on promoting a lower-priced student subscription at the relevant performance. 

Whether theaters can grow their subscription bases remains to be seen. It won’t be a one size fits all solution. Earlier this year, I sat with data from 24 theaters and my office looked like John Nash’s as I tried to plot why some theaters were doing better than others. I couldn’t figure it out—no trends of location or size worked perfectly. A lot of what people told me anecdotally was not borne out by the numbers. (I look forward to the 2022 Theatre Facts report, which will hopefully provide more insight.) But, as we get better data, the community will need to come together to share intel and ideas. That undoubtedly is the way forward.

Industry Trends Weekly is a short column that runs in the weekly Industry Pro Newsletter. You can read past columns and subscribe here. If you have an idea for the column, you can reach the author at cara@broadwayworld.com.