NERDS' Patti Murin, THE RESIDUALS' Michael Paul Smith, THE HAMILCAST's Gillian Pensavalle, BWW Staff Predict Oscar Winners

By: Matt Tamanini Feb. 26, 2016

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Alright cinema junkies, it's time to celebrate the best film-making of 2015. The 88th Annual Academy Awards telecast will air live coast-to-coast on Sunday, February 28th (8:30 PM ET/5:30 PM PT) on ABC, and BroadwayWorld has you covered with all of the news, features, and coverage you could want.

Throughout the week, we've been highlighting some of our favorite nominees with theatre backgrounds, and on Sunday, star of the upcoming Broadway musical NERDS, Patti Murin, will have her own Red Carpet live blog on BWW! Also, Senior TV and Film Critic Matt Tamanini will be live-blogging the ceremony, and we will have a regularly updated article looking at Broadway Twitter's reactions to the broadcast. Then after the Oscars are over, we will look back at all of the winners and the ceremony's best moments. You can also follow along as we live tweet from @BroadwayWorld and @BWWTVWorld.

This afternoon, we are releasing our official BroadwayWorld predictions from our favorite movie-fan friends. Below, you will find the collective predictions of our BWW TV and Movie contributors; Jennifer McHugh, BWW Critic and Co-Host of the new "Some Like it Pop Podcast;" Patti Murin, Broadway leading lady and BWW's resident BACHELOR expert; Caryn Robbins, BWW TV/Movie's Managing Editor; Michael Paul Smith the star and creator on BWW's hit web comedy THE RESIDUALS; Gillian Pensavalle the host of THE HAMILCAST (she is also the co-creator and star of THE RESIDUALS); and Matt Tamanini, BWW's Senior TV and Film Critic.

McHugh and Tamanini also discussed the major awards on a special episode of "Some Like it Pop:"

WRITING (ADAPTED SCREENPLAY)
Nominees: THE BIG SHORT | BROOKLYN | CAROL | THE MARTIAN | ROOM

BWW Contributors: Should Win- THE BIG SHORT | Will Win- THE BIG SHORT
McHugh: THE BIG SHORT
Murin: THE BIG SHORT for the win!!!
Pensavalle: Should Win- THE BIG SHORT | Will Win- THE BIG SHORT
Robbins: Should Win- ROOM | Will Win- CAROL
Smith: What I want to win: THE BIG SHORT.
What I think will win: BROOKLYN. Why? I don't know. I guess I just have a feeling.
Tamanini: I really want THE BIG SHORT to win, because I think that it was the most well-rounded script, balancing humor, extremely complicated financial minutia, and some surprising pathos. So, fortunately, I also think that it will win.

WRITING (ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY)
Nominees: BRIDGE OF SPIES | EX MACHINA | INSIDE OUT | SPOTLIGHT | STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON

BWW Contributors: Should Win- INSIDE OUT | Will Win- SPOTLIGHT
McHugh: SPOTLIGHT
Murin: I'm gonna go out on a limb and say INSIDE OUT for this one. Although SPOTLIGHT will probably, and also deserves to, win.
Pensavalle: Should Win- SPOTLIGHT | Will Win- SPOTLIGHT
Robbins: Should Win- SPOTLIGHT | Will Win- STRAIGHT OUTTA COMPTON
Smith: What I want to win: SPOTLIGHT
What I think will win: SPOTLIGHT
Tamanini: I would love to see EX MACHINA win this award, because I don't think it has a great shot to win anything else. It was a smart, taut thriller that leaves you disoriented from start to finish in the best possible way. However, if SPOTLIGHT wins, which I think it will, I will have no problem with that, because I think it is a remarkably well-written and important film.

ACTRESS IN A SUPPORTING ROLE

Nominees: Jennifer Jason Leigh for THE HATEFUL EIGHT | Rooney Mara for CAROL | Rachel McAdams for SPOTLIGHT | Alicia Vikander for THE DANISH GIRL | Kate Winslet for STEVE JOBS

BWW Contributors: Should Win- Alicia Vikander for THE DANISH GIRL | Will Win- Kate Winslet for STEVE JOBS
McHugh: Alicia Vikander for THE DANISH GIRL
Murin: Confession: I didn't see any of these movies except for STEVE JOBS. So I'm going with Kate Winslet by default.
Pensavalle: Should Win- Rachel McAdams for SPOTLIGHT | Will Win- Jennifer Jason Leigh for THE HATEFUL EIGHT
Robbins: Should Win- Kate Winslet for STEVE JOBS | Will Win- Alicia Vikander for THE DANISH GIRL
Smith: Who I want to win: Rachel McAdams. She unselfishly drives a lot of the story and delivers the subtle conflict of a journalist stifling her personal revulsion while trying to be professional.
Who I think will win: Rachel McAdams.
Tamanini: Since EX MACHINA likely isn't going to win anything, I am instead rooting for Alicia Vikander to win for her performance in THE DANISH GIRL. She is one of Hollywood's most up-and-coming stars, and I would love to see her cap a fantastic breakout year with an Oscars win.

ACTOR IN A SUPPORTING ROLE
Nominees: Christian Bale for THE BIG SHORT | Tom Hardy for THE REVENANT | Mark Ruffalo for SPOTLIGHT | Mark Rylance for BRIDGE OF SPIES | Sylvester Stallone for CREED

BWW Contributors: Should Win- Sylvester Stallone for CREED | Will Win- Sylvester Stallone for CREED
McHugh: Sylvester Stallone for CREED
Murin: Seeing as all I wanted was for Tom Hardy to be Ron Swanson in THE REVENANT, he's out of the running for me. I honestly think Christian Bale was freaking fantastic, so he gets my support.
Pensavalle: Should Win- Mark Ruffalo for SPOTLIGHT | Will Win- Sylvester Stallone for CREED
Robbins: Should Win- Tom Hardy for THE REVENANT | Will Win-Sylvester Stallone for CREED
Smith: Who I want will win: Christian Bale. I'm not sure you'll see an actor more "in the moment" in any film this year. Bale plays a true visionary that doesn't compute basic social cues, and is utterly believable.
Who I think will win: Christian Bale.
Tamanini: This is a fairly selfish pick, but I really want Mark Rylance to win for BRIDGE OF SPIES. As a three-time Tony winner, Rylance has delivered two of the most bizarre acceptance speeches this side of Frances McDormand (check out Rylance's blank verse speeches here). However, I believe that Sylvester Stallone will finally win an Oscar for his seventh Rocky-movie, CREED.

CINEMATOGRAPHY
Nominees: Ed Lachman for CAROL | Robert Richardson for THE HATEFUL EIGHT | John Seale for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD | Emmanuel Lubezki for THE REVENANT | Roger Deakins for Sicario

BWW Contributors: Should Win- John Seale for MAD MAX: FURY | Will Win- Emmanuel Lubezki for THE REVENANT
McHugh: Emmanuel Lubezki for THE REVENANT
Murin: Okay, THIS ONE I will give to that ridiculous $135 million movie about male ego and dominance and revenge (THE REVENANT). Cause it was really beautiful to watch, and impressive that it was shot using only natural lighting.
Pensavalle: Should Win- Emmanuel Lubezki for THE REVENANT | Will Win- John Seale for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD
Robbins: Should Win- John Seale for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD | Will Win- Emmanuel Lubezki for THE REVENANT
Smith: What I want to win: Emmanuel Lubezki for THE REVENANT
What I think will win: Emmanuel Lubezki for THE REVENANT
Tamanini: For some reason, Quentin Tarantino's THE HATEFUL EIGHT is just not getting the love that I think it deserves. Robert Richardson's cinematography for the film is spectacular, but while I want it to win, it has been completely overshadowed by the similarly set THE REVENANT, for which I believe Emmanuel Lubezki will win.

DIRECTING
Nominees: Adam McKay for THE BIG SHORT | George Miller for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD | Alejandro G. Iñárritu for THE REVENANT | Lenny Abrahamson for ROOM | Tom McCarthy for SPOTLIGHT

BWW Contributors: Should Win- George Miller for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD | Will Win- Alejandro G. Iñárritu for THE REVENANT
McHugh: Alejandro G. Iñárritu for THE REVENANT
Murin: I KNOW that terrible extreme outdoor camping movie will probably take this prize, but I would love to see George Miller win for MAD MAX: FURY ROAD. Any human who can create a world like that deserves all of the prizes. It's not a movie I would recommend to my mom, but I was blown away by it.
Pensavalle: Should Win- Adam McKay for THE BIG SHORT | Will Win- Adam McKay for THE BIG SHORT
Robbins: Should Win- Alejandro G. Iñárritu for THE REVENANT | Will Win- Alejandro G. Iñárritu for THE REVENANT
Smith: Who I want to win: Adam McKay. THE BIG SHORT was a huge and very successful departure for him. He told a very serious story with the right amount of humor, and refreshingly broke some storytelling conventions in the process.
Who I think will win: Alejandro González Iñárritu. He did things visually with THE REVENANT that I still can't explain in words.
Tamanini: I desperately want the man who directed and co-wrote THE BALLAD OF RICKY BOBBY: TALLADEGA NIGHTS to win an Oscar. Adam McKay is one of the most accomplished men in movie comedy, and I think he took his game to another level in THE BIG SHORT, but despite my strong objections, I believe that Alejandro G. Iñárritu for THE REVENANT.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Cate Blanchett for CAROL | Brie Larson for ROOM | Jennifer Lawrence for JOY | Charlotte Rampling for 45 YEARS | Saorise Ronan for BROOKLYN

BWW Contributors: Should Win- Saoirse Ronan for BROOKLYN | Will Win- Brie Larson for ROOM
McHugh: Brie Larson for ROOM
Murin: Well, Brie Larson. Duh, right? Though to be honest, I didn't see CAROL, and apparently that's a sin. But Brie Larson.
Pensavalle: Should Win- Cate Blanchett for CAROL | Will Win- Brie Larson for ROOM
Robbins: Should Win- Saoirse Ronan for BROOKLYN | Will Win- Brie Larson for ROOM
Smith: Who I want to win: Brie Larson. She took on a monumental challenge in this film and was just about flawless.
Who I think will win: Brie Larson. For the same reason.
Tamanini: If Brie Larson does not win for ROOM there is no justice in this world. She gave a completely devastating and captivating performance that far surpassed anything else in the field this year. I believe that she will win, but I did absolutely fall in love with Saoirse Ronan in BROOKLYN as well.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE
Nominees: Bryan Cranston for TRUMBO | Matt Damon for THE MARTIAN | Leonardo DiCaprio for THE REVENANT | Michael Fassbender for STEVE JOBS | Eddie Redmayne for THE DANISH GIRL

BWW Contributors: Should Win- Leonardo DiCaprio for THE REVENANT | Will Win- Leonardo DiCaprio for THE REVENANT
McHugh: Leonardo DiCaprio
Murin: Will win? Leonardo DiCaprio. Should win? Michael Fassbender, and not just cause I have a soft spot for Steve Jobs right now. But I know Leo deserves it because of his "body of work," and I like to think his body of work includes GROWING PAINS and the very short lived FIRST PARENTHOOD TV series.
Pensavalle: Should Win- Leonardo DiCaprio for THE REVENANT | Will Win- Eddie Redmayne for THE DANISH GIRL
Robbins: Should Win- Leonardo DiCaprio for THE REVENANT | Will Win- Leonardo DiCaprio for THE REVENANT
Smith: Who I want to win: Leonardo DiCaprio. For large portions of this movie, he had nothing to play off of except his imagination (and maybe a green screen), and he delivered perhaps the most intense performance of his career.
Who I think will win: Leonardo DiCaprio. Oh yeah, and he's also 20 years overdue.
Tamanini: Perhaps I am just a biased Aaron Sorkin apologist, but I thought that STEVE JOBS was undeservedly shunned. It was a powerful film that played like a classic three-act play, and Michael Fassbender was incredible as the mercurial Apple founder. However, I believe that this is the year that ~~Susan Lucci~~ Leonardo DiCaprio finally wins his Oscar.

ANIMATED FEATURE FILM
Nominees: ANOMALISA | BOY & THE WORLD | INSIDE OUT | SHAUN THE SHEEP MOVIE | WHEN MARNIE WAS THERE

BWW Contributors: Should Win- INSIDE OUT | Will Win- INSIDE OUT
McHugh: INSIDE OUT
Murin: Do we even need to ponder this one? INSIDE OUT. BOOM.
Pensavalle: Should Win- ANOMALISA | Will Win- ANOMALISA
Robbins: Should Win- INSIDE OUT | Will Win- INSIDE OUT
Smith: What I want to win: INSIDE OUT.
What I think will win: INSIDE OUT.
Tamanini: INSIDE OUT was in the Top 10 of my Favorite Movies of 2015 list, so of course I want it to win here. I think that the way that Pixar attempted to demystify the complicated emotional journey of growing up is one of the most important things that they have ever put on film. In fact, I would not have been disappointed had it snagged one of unused Best Picture slots. ANOMALISA is a more traditional "artsy" animated film, but I think the sheer brilliance of Pixar will win out.

BWW Contributors: Should Win- THE REVENANT | Will Win- THE REVENANT
McHugh: THE REVENANT
Murin: I actually saw all of the Best Picture nominees this year!! Six of them before the nominations even came out! AND I loved seven of them. THE REVENANT made me want to find a bear and let it attack me just so I didn't have to watch it anymore. But of all of the rest, ROOM wins my heart and brain and tear ducts. Good LORD, I cried. And I was on a plane, but I didn't give any craps about who was watching me weep into my pinot grigio. ROOM. ROOM. ROOM. (Special shoutouts to THE BIG SHORT for somehow making mortgages understandable, and to SPOTLIGHT for employing the genius that is Brian d'Arcy James. Bonus fun fact: I was so impressed with how realistic THE MARTIAN was until I realized that WE DON'T LAND ON MARS YET. Get it together, Murin.)
Pensavalle: Should Win- THE BIG SHORT | Will Win- THE BIG SHORT
Robbins: Should Win- MAD MAX: FURY ROAD | Will Win- SPOTLIGHT
Smith: What I want to win: THE BIG SHORT. I don't think there's a more important film for this moment in time, and Adam McKay's bold choice of breaking the fourth wall throughout I think pays off in a big way (seriously no pun intended).
What I think will win: SPOTLIGHT. I was terrified of seeing this movie because I thought it would be too infuriating. The fact that such a horrifying subject can be made into something so engrossing should not go unnoticed.
Tamanini: I went back and forth on this one, between the power and importance of SPOTLIGHT and the craft and importance of THE BIG SHORT. Ultimately, I went with the latter. While SPOTLIGHT succeeds in one very particular lane, THE BIG SHORT does so in nearly every imaginable way. So, I hope that it wins, but I am disappointed to say that I think that THE REVENANT, a movie that I just didn't get, has all of the momentum right now, and will probably win.

Here are McHugh and Tamanini's remaining picks for their "Some Like It Pop" forced binge-watching wager.

BEST ANIMATED SHORT FILM

McHugh: WORLD OF TOMORROW
Tamanini: SANJAY'S SUPER TEAM

BEST COSTUME DESIGN

McHugh: CINDERELLA
Tamanini: MAD MAX: FURY ROAD

BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE

McHugh: AMY
Tamanini: AMY

BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT

McHugh: A GIRL IN THE RIVER: THE PRICE OF FORGIVENESS
Tamanini: BODY TEAM 12

BEST FILM EDITING