Broadway's Barometer - What Can We Expect for the 1st Quarter of 2009?

There are two times of year in the Broadway season that you can always count on traditional dips - at the end of the summer (what we refer to as ‘Back to School’) and then the January slump, which follows the Holiday Season, when tourists go home and everyone sits tight and assesses their economics, because taxes are due and Spring break is a long 3 months away. This impacts not only the theatre, but also restaurants, hotels and other areas of the travel industry. New York hotels, restaurants and nightlife however tend to benefit from conventions all year round, so it’s Broadway that takes the biggest 'hit.'

This year will be of particular interest due to the economic situation, which makes the phrase "more for your  hard earned dollar" even harder, if the dollar simply isn't there. It's going to be tough for everyone and early 2009's closings include 13, A New Musical, All My Sons, Boeing-Boeing, Dividing The Estate, Grease, Gypsy, Hairspray, The Seagull, Monty Python's Spamalot, Spring Awakening, Young Frankenstein, Equus and Speed-The-Plow (along with scheduled seasonal runs of White Christmas, Liza's at the Palace! and SLAVA'S SNOWSHOW)...some of which have recouped and others not. 

One could argue, that in some cases, a particular number of these shows would have closed anyway…but there's no question that what went on in the 4th quarter in both America's and the world's economy simply fueled the hot coals – and turned a bad situation worse, making it a "three alarm fire." Add to this that we still have a country at war and, as excited as we are about the new leader of our country, it'll be a hard climb up and a rough road ahead for everyone.

For many theatergoers, it brings up the question of “how essential is theatre” (given a budget of any kind) and I think we all know the answer to that, but it certainly is hard to keep it from going into a category which is truly suffering - that of "luxury goods."

One of the key things to watch, if you do watch the grosses weekly here on BroadwayWorld.com, is that the REAL story can be told in "the average ticket price." That will usually disclose internal discounting, TKTS and other types of offers that exist in any way that the current marketers can strategize, shedding light on a show’s true health.

One of the most popular and successful examples of protecting January - March sales came years ago when Cameron Mackintosh and his team, headed at that time by Marc Thibodeau, gave birth to the idea of “The Winter Sale” and sold orchestra seats, in advance, for a reduced price - no waiting, no conditions, no standing in line at the half-price booth. This was an immediate success and secured their break-evens for those crucial weeks and everything else was said to be ‘icing on the cake.’ This was an advertising event and piece of marketing that would be imitated and copied for years, but was never quite as successful because Mackintosh, at that time had the "real estate" and his top brand selling shows - Les Miserables, Miss Saigon and The Phantom of the Opera.

Recoupment is everything to a Broadway show, and that's what truly spells success, more than any awards that a show might have won. There are glaring examples of these throughout theatre history and the bottom line is simply that - the bottom line. Many a show has run for years and never recouped. 

This year also produced one of the oddest events in recent theatre lore, with Jeremy Piven and his alleged 'mercury poisoning' just one or two weeks prior to recoupment. The show will undoubtedly still recoup, but this may cost Piven a Tony-nomination and any chance at future time on the boards.

Just like actors, with shows and their producers, there's always "someone waiting in the wings" and although in some cases, it's unclear whether some of them are actually fully financed are not, here's what's currently scheduled to come in as the others go out: The American Plan (Biltmore), Hedda Gabler (American Airlines), The Story of My Life (Booth), Guys and Dolls (Nederlander), Hair (Al Hirschfeld), Blithe Spirit (Shubert), West Side Story (Palace), Irena's Vow (Walter Kerr), You're Welcome America. A Final Night with George W. Bush (Cort), reasons to be pretty (Lyceum), Rock of Ages (Brooks Atkinson), Mary Stuart (Broadhurst), 9 to 5 (Marquis) and Waiting for Godot (Studio 54) and more.

Here is a brief history of January closings  over the last ten years. 

January 2009 Closings
13, A New Musical - January 4, 2009
Boeing-Boeing - January 4, 2009
Dividing The Estate - January 4, 2009
Grease - January 4, 2009
Hairspray - January 4, 2009
Liza's at the Palace...! - January 4, 2009
Young Frankenstein - January 4, 2009
White Christmas - January 4, 2009
SLAVA'S SNOWSHOW - January 4, 2009
All My Sons - January 11, 2009
Gypsy - January 11, 2009
Monty Python's Spamalot - January 11, 2009
Spring Awakening - January 18, 2009

January 2008 Closings
Cymbeline - January 6, 2008
Les Miserables - January 6, 2008
Cyrano de Bergerac - January, 6 2008
Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas - January 6, 2008
The 25th Annual Putnam County Spelling Bee - January 20, 2008

January 2007 Closings
Dr. Seuss' How the Grinch Stole Christmas - January 7, 2007
Martin Short: Fame Becomes Me - January 7, 2007
Butley - January 14, 2007

January 2006 Closings
Seascape - January 8, 2006
Souvenir - January 8, 2006
Fiddler on the Roof - January 8, 2006
A Touch of the Poet - January 29, 2006

January 2005 Closings
Bombay Dreams - January 1, 2005
Dracula, the Musical - January 2, 2005
Laugh Whore - January 2, 2005
Golda's Balcony - Jan 2, 2005
42nd Street - January 2, 2005
‘night Mother - January 9, 2005
The Rivals - January 23, 2005
Wonderful Town - January 30, 2005
Whoppi - January 30, 2005
Pacific Overtures - January 30, 2005

January 2004 Closings
The Caretaker - January 4, 2004
Cabaret - January 4, 2004
Take Me Out - January 4, 2004
Henry IV - January 18, 2004

January 2003 Closings
Proof - January 5, 2003
Hollywood Arms - January 5, 2003
Dance of the Vampires - January 25, 2003
Dinner at Eight - January 26, 2003
Our Town - January 26, 2003

January 2002 Closings
The Rocky Horror Show - January 6, 2002
Thou Shalt Not - January 6, 2002
The Women - January 13, 2002
Hedda Gabler - January 13, 2002
Dance of Death - January 13, 2002
45 Seconds From Broadway - January 13, 2002

January 2001 Closings
Jekyll & Hyde - January 7, 2001
Swing! - January 14, 2001
Copenhagen - January 21, 2001
Miss Saigon - January 28, 2001

January 2000 Closings
Kat and the Kings - January 2, 2000
The Scarlet Pimpernel - January 2, 2000
Minnelli on Minnelli - January 2, 2000
It Ain't Nothin' But the Blues - January 9, 2000
Tango Argentino - January 9, 2000
Morning, Noon and Night - January 10, 2000
Marie Christine - January 9, 2000
Ragtime - January 16, 2000
Smokey Joe's Café - January 16, 2000
The Rainmaker - January 23, 2000

January 1999 Closings
I'm Still Here ... Damn It! - January 2, 1999
Fool Moon - January 3, 1999
Peter Pan - January 3, 1999
Bring in ‘Da Noise, Bring in ‘Da Funk - January 10, 1999
On the Town - January 17, 1999
Swan Lake - January 23, 1999