BroadwayGirlNYC: 2010 Tony Predictions

Well my lovelies, we are now only days away from the 2010 Tonys.  As you know from reading my last few columns and my frequent excited  tweets, the Awards have been on my mind for weeks.  I'm getting exponentially more excited as the day grows closer; it seems like now is the time to post my analysis of the nominees - including my picks for who should, and who will, win big this year.

 

BEST PLAY

Of the four nominated shows, I see "winner" potential in three.  Red is a critical darling; Next Fall is the "little show that could" that transferred from Off-Broadway; and Time Stands Still is so strong it is being brought back next season at the Cort for an open-ended run.   Personally, I strongly disliked In the Next Room (I'm proud of my use of the term "zzzzzzz" to describe the vibrator play) and I can't believe it was nominated.  So what of the other three? Given the current and continuing buzz, I think Red will take home the big prize.  And, while I had an emotional reaction to Time Stands Still and was thoroughly impressed by the acting from the entire cast of Next Fall, I'm picking Red as my favorite play of the year as well.  The combination of incredible writing, powerhouse performances by both actors, and soaring, gorgeous design makes Red stand above the other nominated plays.

MY PICK: Red

PREDICTED WINNER: Red

 

BEST MUSICAL

Of the shows nominated in this marquee category, three are non-traditional musicals that use previously existing music: Fela! is a bio-show that tells the story of Fela Kuti through his own rebellious, political compositions; American Idiot is an on-stage, long-form music video based on the 2004 album of the same name; and Million Dollar Quartet is a glorified revue of the tunes of Elvis Presley, Johnny Cash, Jerry Lee Lewis and Carl Perkins.  While two of these  shows offer significant originality (Fela! being the most original "jukebox" show Broadway has ever seen, and Idiot bringing rock music to Broadway in a style more current than even Rent or Spring Awakening achieved), Memphis is the only truly original musical nominated this year.  Memphis has the benefit of a buzz that has grown steadily; it had a few shaky months at the start, but has since grown into a go-to show for tourists and locals alike. Combine that with the promise of an upcoming national tour, and it's the logical choice for a traditional best-musical win.  That said, I think Fela! has a good chance of an upset, since it is new & different, in such a captivating way.  Personally, I loved Fela! but I haven't felt the need to go back to see it a second time.  I am a huge fan of American Idiot (and having seen it in Berkeley I can say that it's a solid transfer), but I can't recommend it as the best musical of the year simply because I think it might be off-putting to theatre-goers who aren't already fans of Green Day.  So my personal pick (as well as my prediction of the Tony voters' pick) this year is Memphis, which I've gone back to see three times.

MY PICK: Memphis

PREDICTED WINNER: Memphis (possible upset: Fela!)

 

BOOK OF A MUSICAL

In considering my pick for this category, I've gone forth between Memphis and Fela!.  Memphis has a clear, traditional book - it's a story that follows a hero through his conflict and romance.  Fela!, while lacking in a traditional musical-theatre story, features a gorgeous first-person narrative that brings the audience out of the theatre and all the way to Nigeria.  I'm ultimately chose Fela! As my favorite book, because when I saw that show, I stopped thinking about the story and just lost myself in it.  Rather than being an observer, I felt like a member of Fela Kuti's community. It wasn't just the music that did it; the storytelling was crafted brilliantly to not just tell the story, but get the audience involved.  Will the Tony voters agree with me? It's possible, but I actually think they will want to reward Sherie Rene Scott and Dick Scanlan for Everyday Rapture, which came to Broadway on incredibly short notice (after the cancellation of Lips Together, Teeth Apart) and has sparkled for the last few weeks.  I think the voters will want to see Sherie onstage accepting an award (and sadly I don't think she can win as Best Actress).  As for Million Dollar Quartet: I don't think its book holds a candle to the others in this category.  Exceptional performances aside (and let's be honest, only Levi Kreis as Jerry Lee Lewis can be categorized that way), the book is uneven; the solid parts are based in reality, and the rest exists only to  piece together a glorified impersonator revue.

MY PICK: Fela!

PREDICTED WINNER: Everyday Rapture

 

ORIGINAL SCORE

I've always thought of this as a category for musicals, but this year two of the nominees are actually plays (Enron and Fences).  I remember the music from Enron being prevalent, but not exceptional; Fences was beautifully scored, but I don't think it deserves to win over a show that actually depends on the music and lyrics as a core part of its identity.  I'm biased since I still haven't seen The Addams Family (I'm hoping to cross it off my list this weekend), but I've chosen Memphis as my winner here.  The Tony voters may agree with me, but then again they may take pity on The Addams Family, which barely got acknowledged by the nominating committee.  But I actually predict that they'll decide to shake things up by picking a play: Fences is such a darling, the "high-brow" show of the season; Branford Marsalis, who composed the score, is a legend; and I think the voters will want to reward the play for using music so well.

MY PICK: Memphis

PREDICTED WINNER: Fences

 

REVIVAL OF A PLAY

This one is easy: I think Fences takes it by a mile.  I loved The Royal Family and was entertained by A View from the Bridge and Lend Me a Tenor, but Fences soared past them: I found it gorgeous, captivating, and entirely moving.  My pick is Fences and I predict that the Tony voters will agree.

MY PICK: Fences

PREDICTED WINNER: Fences

 

REVIVAL OF A MUSICAL

It certainly did hurt when Ragtime closed, didn't it?  (And Finian's Rainbow had its fair share mourners on closing night as well.) But my favorite revival of a musical this year was A Little Night Music: you can read my review, and the adventure of how I got there, here. So I've chosed Night Music as my winner; but I think the Tony award will go to La Cage Aux Folles.  Not only is La Cage the only show here with a definite future (Night Music is scheduled to close on June 20), but it also has the benefit of having opened recently to critical acclaim, and it has already picked up the oft-predictive Drama Desk award.

MY PICK: A Little Night Music

PREDICTED WINER: La Cage Aux Folles

 

LEADING ACTOR IN A PLAY

Liev Schreiber won the Drama Desk award, and he's a past Tony winner; but in my eyes, this one is a toss-up between Denzel Washington and Jude Law.  (Alfred Molina is absolutely fantastic, but I think he'll be recognized as part of the entire production of Red; Christopher Walken was just being Christopher-Walken-ish, and while that's entertaining, I don't find it worthy of a Tony award.)  I predict that the award will go to either Denzel or Liev, but I'm going to pick Jude Law as my favorite actor in a play, and here's why: I tend to doze during Shakespeare (even though I recogize its genius) - but watching Jude play Hamlet, I was mesmerized.  I went into the show expecting to find a pretty boy there to sell tickets, but instead found a stellar actor who had me entranced through the 3+ hour performance.

MY PICK: Jude Law

PREDICTED WINNER: Denzel Washington (possible upset: Liev Schreiber)

 

LEAD ACTRESS IN A PLAY

Since the first of three times I saw The Royal Family, I've been saying that Jan Maxwell should win the Tony for her role as Julie Cavendish. I stick by that now, even though Viola Davis (in Fences) delivers one of the most heartwrenching and moving performances I've ever seen onstage. I think Viola will win - her role is so memorable and since Fences is still running, it will be top-of-mind to those casting ballots - but I'm sticking with my early choice. Jan Maxwell is my favorite leading actress of the year.

MY PICK: Jan Maxwell

PREDICTED WINNER: Viola Davis

 

LEADING ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

Douglas Hodge of La Cage is the shoo-in (he has already won the Drama Desk Award, and the voters will want to reward him for debuting on Broadway so marvelously).  But I'm emphatically choosing Sahr Ngaujah (Fela!) as the best leading actor in a musical this season.  Hodge may rock his role (and I don't deny that he is fantastic), but Ngaujah embodies Fela Kuti to the point I forgot I wasn't watching the late legend himself.  (Chad Kimball and Kelsey Grammer deliver strong performances as well; as charming as Sean Hayes is in Promises, Promises, I'm afraid he'll have to be content with his role as host at the 2010 Tony Awards.)

MY PICK: Sahr Ngaujah

PREDICTED WINNER: Douglas Hodge

 

LEADING ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

I was brought to tears by Christiane Noll in Ragtime, in the most wonderful way!  I still get teary just thinking about her rendition of "Back to Before" (if only there was a cast album available!).  So she's my choice as the best of the year, although I'm sadly resigned to the fact that she's a longshot to win the prize.  Catherine Zeta-Jones is simply breathtaking, old-school-movie-star-style, in A Little Night Music; I think she'll take home the Tony.  Though Montego Glover has a healthy shot too.

MY PICK: Christiane Noll

PREDICTED WINNER: Catherine Zeta-Jones (possible upset: Montego Glover)

 

FEATURED ACTOR IN A PLAY

I'd love to see Jon Michael Hill win for Superior Donuts.  One of the strongest performances of the year, I fear that he'll be forgotten since the play closed quietly several months ago. He is my pick, but I predict that Eddie Redmayne will win for Red; he's young and fresh and surprising onstage.  If Tony voters take pity on Enron for its quick close, Stephen Kunken could get the sympathy vote on the show's behalf.

MY PICK: Jon Michael Hill

PREDICTED WINNER: Eddie Redmayne (possible upset: Stephen Kunken)

 

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A PLAY

This is one of the only categories that doesn't blow me away when I look at the nominees.  The only two women on this list who really impressed me with their performances were RoseMary Harris in The Royal Family (an incomparable legend) and Jan Maxwell in Lend me a Tenor.  Still, for some reason I have a feeling that Jessica Hecht might walk away with the statuette; she was understated in A View from the Bridge, stuck in the shadows of Scarlett and Liev.  She brought a solid steadiness to a character who required just that, holding up the Hollywood stars and letting them shine.

MY PICK: RoseMary Harris (though I'd love to see Jan Maxwell win twice in the same night!)

PREDICTED WINNER: Jessica Hecht

 

FEATURED ACTOR IN A MUSICAL

I was impressed by all of the actors in this category (although as noted above, I haven't yet had the pleasure of taking in Kevin Chamberlain's performance in The Addams Family).  Robin de Jesús is a longtime favorite, Bobby Steggert is darling, and Christopher Fitzgerald was my favorite part of Finian's Rainbow.  However, I think that Levi Kress is a lock to win in this category, and he's my pick too.  I didn't love Million Dollar Quartet, but Levi's performance alone was worth the price of the ticket.  He is so fantastic I'd venture to say his is one of the best performances I've ever seen in all my years of theatre going.  Let's just call him a "million dollar" sure thing.

MY PICK: Levi Kreis

PREDICTED WINNER: Levi Kreis

 

FEATURED ACTRESS IN A MUSICAL

Angela Lansbury's Tony Award last year was basically a Lifetime Achievement award.  If she hadn't won for Blithe Spirit, I think she'd win it this year for sure; but I don't think she'll have to clear any more shelf space.  This year, the two frontrunners are Katie Finneran, the standout from Promises, Promises, and Barbara Cook, who last won in 1957 for The Music Man - she could win for the same reason Angela did last year.  I think Katie - my pick - will eke out the win because her performance was such a bold surprise; but I wouldn't be at all shocked if Barbara pulls an upset.  She is a legend, after all, and Tony voters love to reward their icons.

MY PICK: Katie Finneran

PREDICTED WINNER: Katie Finneran (possible upset: Barbara Cook)

 

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SCENIC DESIGN OF A PLAY

MY PICK: The Royal Family

PREDICTED WINNER: The Royal Family

 

SCENIC DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

MY PICK: American Idiot

PREDICTED WINNER: American Idiot

 

COSTUME DESIGN OF A PLAY
MY PICK: Lend Me a Tenor

PREDICTED WINNER: In the Next Room or the vibrator play

 

COSTUME DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

MY PICK: La Cage Aux Folles

PREDICTED WINNER: La Cage aux Folles

 

LIGHTING DESIGN OF A PLAY
MY PICK: Red

PREDICTED WINNER: Red (possible upset: American Idiot)

 

LIGHTING DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

MY PICK: American Idiot

PREDICTED WINNER: Fela!

 

SOUND DESIGN OF A PLAY

MY PICK: Enron

PREDICTED WINNER: Enron

  

SOUND DESIGN OF A MUSICAL

MY PICK: Sondheim on Sondheim

PREDICTED WINNER: Sondheim on Sondheim

 

DIRECTION OF A PLAY

MY PICK: Sheryl Kaller, Next Fall

PREDICTED WINNER: Kenny Leon, Fences

  

DIRECTION OF A MUSICAL

MY PICK: Bill T. Jones, Fela!

PREDICTED WINNER: Terry Johnson, La Cage aux Folles

CHOREOGRAPHY

MY PICK: Bill T. Jones, Fela!

PREDICTED WINNER: Bill T. Jones, Fela!

ORCHESTRATIONS

MY PICK: Memphis

PREDICTED WINNER: Memphis