So what if Les Mis wins this weekend?

[DustyC]

The Oscars are this weekend! And I was wondering, even though it most likely won't happend. What would the future of movie musicals be if Les Miserables were to win best picture. Since in my opinion no movie musical has ever been produced to such a grand. Would this change the direction of how movie musicals are produced. Also, do you think if it were to win would it open the eyes of some non ttheater fans. Yeah I know that Chicago and sound of music won best pic in the past. Bleh blah bleh.

[best12bars]

Yeah I know that Chicago and sound of music won best pic in the past. Bleh blah bleh.

Doesn't that answer your question right there? You yourself feel "bleh, bleh, bleh" about The Sound of Music and Chicago winning Best Picture and you wonder if a win for Les Miz will change the world as we know it?

It's the mindset that needs to change, not the trophies.

If it were to win (which is unlikely), there would be a lot of shock, celebration, chatter in the media about how this will help put more musicals into production in Hollywood, and ultimately a huge backlash against this film by people just like you who would trash it for not being worthy of such a big honor.

People love to build up "gods" and then tear them down again.

Same as it ever was.

[g.d.e.l.g.i.]

Same as it ever was.

That reminds me... it's high time for a Talking Heads musical.

[Patronus]

Not to mention that the Oscars are far from the only show in town or the prestigious entity that they used to be.

Sure we all still watch them and they are the culmination of the awards season, but they've made some extremely questionable choices at best in recent memory and I don't see an Academy Award being the end all or be all for any film ever again.

[Jordan Catalano]

ARGO is going to win so it's kind of a moot point.

[rorschach37]

I personally enjoyed Les Mis more than Argo, but I think Argo has much better chances.

[best12bars]

The Oscars are a peer award, not from critics or from fans.

The bottom line is that it doesn't matter at all what "we the people" think of it. If it's slipped a glamorous notch or two or three in the public's eye, it makes no difference. The only people who care about what "we" think are the ones producing and airing the telecast. They want big ratings.

Hollywood itself values this award, because it comes from Hollywood. That hasn't changed a bit since 1927.

[TheGingerBreadMan]

West Side Story won Best Picture in 1961.

[DustyC]

Hey best12bars I appreciate your response, but the only reason I put bleh blah bleh at the end was because I did know how to end my post. I hope you did not take offense as there was no intention to trash any shows.

[best12bars]

I didn't take offense at all, DustyC. It just sounds like you feel ho-hum about past musical winners, yet you want to know if a "new" winner will change things.

[tazber]

The following all won Best Picture:

The Broadway Melody (1929)
Going My Way (1944)
An American in Paris (1951)
Gigi (195
West Side Story (1961)
My Fair Lady (1964)
The Sound of Music (1965)
Oliver! (196
Chicago (2002)

As you can see 1950-1970 was a fertile time for musicals on film.
These days, not so much. There have been recent hits (Hairspray, Mama Mia, Moulin Rouge) but also flops (POTO, Producers, Nine, Sweeney Todd, Rock of Ages).

So, the bottom line is, it isn't the awards that matter today, it's the box office. Les Miz's success has surely reignited interest in producing movie musicals. But I doubt that we are anywhere near seeing an over abundance of them.

[Kad]

Sweeney Todd didn't actually flop, you know. It grossed three times its budget and won the Oscar for Best Art Direction. Hardly a flop.

[Jordan Catalano]

I hope Amanda Seyfried wins Best Vibrato.

[bobs3]

I would not call SWEENEY TODD and THE PHANTOM OF THE OPERA flops!

Phantom grossed $154 million (not including ancillary income) and cost appx. $70 million.

Sweeney Todd grossed $152 million (not including ancillary income) and cost appx. $50 million.

According to financial experts in the film industry, any film that returns at least twice its upfront production costs is considered a hit (but because of creative accounting practices very few films are considered "profitable").

[SNAFU]

bobs, I was told three times it's upfront production costs to begin actually making money. You have the cost of distribution and promotional costs that add up very very quickly.
Though I don't think either film actually flopped, they were not the runaway smash hits the producers had hoped for.

[tazber]

Those figures take the international box office into account.
In terms of inspiring a studio to produce a musical those numbers are far from persuasive. Otherwise there would probably be a lot more musicals being made in Hollywood.

POTO grossed only 50 million here in America and Sweeney grossed 52 million.

Which for an action film would be fine. Audiences can appreciate things exploding and car chases in any language. But musicals are less translatable for foreign markets.

[James885]

I disagree. I don't think anyone was expecting Sweeney Todd to be a runaway smash hit along the lines of either Hairspray or Mamma Mia. If they were, they wouldn't have settled for an R rating.

The film was well received by critics, grossed a decent amount of money and earned three Oscar nominations (including Best Actor). I wouldn't classify it as a flop.

[tazber]

Ok, I mean we could debate forever. My point is that neither POTO nor Sweeney did much to further the number of musicals being produced.

And I definitely think the studio had higher expectations for Sweeney than you do. Tim Burton and Johnny Depp's box office records probably had the studio hoping for a huge hit, "R" rating regardless.

[SporkGoddess]

I really want Argo to win. I love Les Mis as much as the next person, but IMO Argo was the better film.

[bobs3]

Upfront (or above the line costs) are accounted for differently than below the line costs (marketing and distribution) which have different accounting rules. Since most movies are filmed and distributed digitally these days the costs of making prints has become nil. You also have to take into account ancillary rights (DVD sales, soundtrack sales, television rights etc. that can significantly add to a film's receipts) which also have different set of accounting rules. Back-end deals for participants are also taken into account.

It is difficult to explain the complexities of show business industry accounting to a neophyte but I am a CPA (that's Certified Public Account to the uninformed) and I understand these matters.

[tazber]

It is difficult to explain the complexities of show business industry accounting to a neophyte but I am a CPA (that's Certified Public Account to the uninformed) and I understand these matters.

Well your certainly certifiably smug.

(oh, and guess what? I'm an EA with clients in the industry so I know exactly what you're talking about)

[FindingNamo]

"Math is hard." -- Barbie

[dramamama611]

Good lord, it's not really that difficult to understand.

[SNAFU]

Well bobs, I guess this Neophyte is just too dense to wrap my head around the workings of a... what was a CPA again? In my forty five years running a business working directly with the Film and Television Industry I guess I could never even begin to grasp at the complexities!

[lotiloti]

Whatever good Les Mis does, for the future of movie musicals. A film version of Wicked, will quickly destroy.

[Idiot]

As much of a fanboy as I am of the original stage version, and as much as I enjoyed the film, I am surprised by how forgettable it is. Seems like it's going to be ARGO... but then again, they chose GLADIATOR in the same year that THE CONTENDER was not even, well... a contender.