LES MIZ: Box Office and Top-Grossing Movie Musicals

[jacobsnchz14]

How do you think the film will do at the box office? Will other movies released that week, or in the weeks prior, prevent the film from possibly being #1 if it has the potential? Among the list of top-grossing musical films, where do you think it'll end up on this list?

http://boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=musical.htm

Sorry for the hypotheticals and starting another Les Miz thread... I'm just curious as to what other think...

[Michael Bennett]

The film should open strong, but the real test is going to be in the weeks afterwards- in order to be "huge" it's going to have to have tremendous word of mouth beyond the fans of the musical, who will likely go in the first week.

Having seen the film twice now, I frankly am not convinced its going to be as huge as some are expecting. It's going to really divide mainstream audiences- and even at Guild screenings I've seen a number of walk outs which is rare- 2 1/2 hours of non stop singing is not to everyone's tastes.

[frogs_fan85]

There is a good amount of counter programming coming out either the same day or the Friday before: adult comedy (This is 40, Guilt Trip), adult drama (Django Unchained), action thriller (Jack Reacher), family comedy (Parental Guidance), and the limited release of Zero Dark Thirty in NY and LA, which could attract a lot of people who would rather see that first than Les Mis during its opening week. (I include myself in this category.) The Hobbit (which has both IMAX and 3D screenings to help bolster its gross) should also be a strong hold over as well. The nearly three hour run time of Les Mis will limit the number of possible screenings per day. The limited IMAX screenings notwithstanding, there is no 3D premium ticket pricing that could boost the grosses. The PG-13 rating and the no so upbeat thematic elements probably won't help it be a family outing film, so Rise of the Guardians and Wreck It Ralph will probably do good/increased business Christmas week with children out of school. As Michael Bennett says above I can't see this being the breakout hit that people are expecting.

For what it's worth Box Office Mojo predicted a $125 million domestic gross in its holiday forecast.

[StageManager2]

I agree with Michael Bennett. It will open big due to fan anticipation and curiosity -- even Evita opened at #2 -- but it will need strong word of mouth to keep it going, which is doubtful 'cause I don't see the general public taking to a 2 1/2 hour sung-through operetta.

For what it's worth, I don't see it recouping its $61 million budget domestically, but when foreign gross is taken into account, I see it making a small profit. But it won't be the next Titanic as some people on IMDb are hoping, or even the next Mamma Mia!.

[EricMontreal22]

I definitely see it making more than the $150 (domestic plus foreign) gross Phantom did, but I think it'll make more money foreign than domestic, as well.

And I agree with MB--it'll depend on word of mouth. Remember Chicago ended up making $150 domestically alone and yet wasw never in the number one, and I believe rarely in the number two posiution--it was all word of mouth.

[Jonwo]

Films don't need to hit number 1 to be hits, Bridesmaids and Sherlock Holmes both didn't reach number 1 but still made over $200m, WOM always determine whether a film sticks around or not.

[SNAFU]

I believe that the standard for a film to be a financial hit , it has to make 3 times it's production costs. Studios end up spending almost twice the films costs in promoting and advertising the film.

[Jonwo]

The budget is $61m so it has a good chance of making it back from the box office and maybe a small profit, it'll make money when its eventually released on DVD and Blu-Ray plus TV rights.