Comments on Les Miserables movie

[peachesr82]

I feel for Hugh Jackman because to get the year Daniel Day-Lewis out Lincolns Lincoln is really tough. Joaquin Pheonix too, but he might have talked himself out of that. You have to wonder if Academy voters might favour Lincoln but Les Mis might do really well, maybe even better, with Bafta and it's pretty got the Globe in the bag.
Presumably they'll push Hoffman supporting for The Master which could push out Crowe or Redmayne but supporting is weak this season. Acting wise, SAG will be the ones to thin the herd I would think, they tend to have a big influence.

[best12bars]

Keep in mind there are only two other actors in history who have won three Oscars. That's not to say Day-Lewis won't join the list as #3, but the Academy knows it's honored him twice before. If any voters are on the fence after they see all the nominees, that won't help him win. If he's a clear choice, however, that's different.

[tazber]

At this point I'm gathering that it's Tommy Lee Jones for the win in the supporting category. But it's still really early.

Also, I think there is going to be a huge amount of love for Silver Linings Playbook. I wouldn't be surprised at all if Robert DeNiro gets a nomination.

I don't think any of the Les Miz people are going to score individual nominations except for Hathaway.

But that's just what I'm gathering from people who have seen all these films.

[best12bars]

I would be shocked if anyone turns in a performance better than Tommy Lee Jones's this year for Supporting Actor.

[Auggie27]

Tommy Lee will be supporting, along with Field, who is likely the competition for Hathaway. I could make a case that Field should be in the Best Actress category (Mary Todd is this film is supporting, but Nurse Rachet was Best Actress?)

Personally, as much as I loved the LINCOLN film, I thought Denzel Washington more deserving of Best Actor that Daniel Day Lewis, admittedly in a much lesser film. Washington is the entire film, and he's fearless. At least he will be nominated. Phoenix is in a film many (me included) found difficult to sit through

[dreaming]

Sally Field will NEVER win if they put her in supporting. Leading actress is a weak category this year. (None of the usual suspects have had remarkable films and Field could easily win there.) Hathaway will win supporting actress. She went through so much for the role (think Natalie Portman and Nicole Kidman and Charlize Theron-they like that kind of transformation for a role). Not to mention I think her role is substantial enough to warrant leading actress.

[Movidude742]

I was working for a movie theater chain when Dreamgirls was out and Every time I was near an auditorium for And I am Telling You, there would be applause from the audience. Every time. Including a month or more into the run

[best12bars]

I saw Dreamgirls twice in movie theatres in Los Angeles. Neither were industry screenings. Both times, they applauded after that song.

[peachesr82]

I get the feeling Jackman is very well liked within the industry, not that Day-Lewis isn't, but if it comes down campaigning and Jackman is willing to play the game it could work in his favour.

[mjroberts972]

I feel like either Redmayne or Cohen will get a suporting actor nomination. I didnt think Redmayne would get one, but the critical praise about him all weekend has convinced me he has a chance at getting a nomination.
And maybe Carter will sneak into the supporting actress category, mainly because it is a very weak category this year.

[dreaming]

Jackman has never won and has been best known as "Wolverine" until now. This role is a departure for him in the film industry, which helps him tremendously.

Another contender who could quietly slip in is John Hawkes for "The Sessions". And if Crowe is in supporting, then Anthony Hopkins will take the other nod for "Hitchcock". I don't envy anyone in this category. It's very strong:

Hugh Jackman
Daniel Day-Lewis
John Hawkes
Anthony Hopkins
Bill Murray

Any one of these men could take it.

[best12bars]

Not only is Sally Field's part not big enough for a leading award, it's barely weighty enough for Supporting.

I think she will definitely be nominated for an Oscar, and possibly could win, but one of the major strikes against her is that she's short one or two substantial scenes to put her in a "lock." That has to do with the writing of the character.

It's not necessarily the size of the role, although that helps. Obviously people have won for five minutes of screen work, though. Sally doesn't have one of those scenes like Judi Dench did in Shakespeare in Love when it suddenly becomes "her movie" and the clocks stop on the walls while she's on screen. That's impact, and you can't judge it with a stopwatch.

Sally either needed more screen time or one of those takeover scenes. She has neither, even if she's damn good.

Tommy Lee Jones, on the other hand, has far more screen time AND several take-over-the-picture scenes.

[best12bars]

Even though I haven't seen Les Miz yet, the part of Fantine is essentially a leading female role for the first half-hour of the film. The part as written is a take-over-the-picture role. That's in the writing, even without seeing Hathaway's work. If she rises to the occasion, it could very well be her year.

And again, you've got Sally Field, a two-time Oscar winner. Only three other actresses in history have won three (or more). Meryl Streep is the only living actress to have three. Kate Hepburn and Ingrid Bergman are the other two (and Kate has four).

[dreaming]

best-what she does is more incredible than Dench who didn't deserve the award for a role barely larger than an extra. She has some powerful dialogue with Lincoln and just transforms seamlessly into the role. As I said, leading actress is a rather weak category.

It's about best actor and supporting actress this year.

I think it'll be split between Les Mis and Lincoln.

(I'd hardly be upset if Hawkes pulls off a huge upset.)

[best12bars]

best-what she does is more incredible than Dench who didn't deserve the award for a role barely larger than an extra.

I completely disagree with that.

[dreaming]

That's your right, best. I loved the film but didn't think Dench deserved an Academy Award for that performance. She won because she's a legend who'd never won before. It's politics.

[leefowler]

First of all, I disagree with people who are comparing the early reaction of this movie to similar positive reactions to the Evita and Dreamgirls movies. The buzz to this feels quite different. And I've talked to some industry people who feel the movie is a triumph. I haven't seen it myself, although I can't wait.

And they've all said that this is a role of a lifetime for Jackman. I think he would probably win the Oscar, both because he's well liked, and it would be a novelty for someone to win best actor for a musical.

[henrikegerman]

Agree that Sally Field as lead would be ridiculous; it is not at all a leading role.

However, I disagree strongly that the role and the performance are not even arguably weighty enough for a supporting oscar. She has at least three critical scenes and several other very strong ones and she rocks in all of them. Her monologue in which she confronts Tommy Lee Jones alone is a Beatrice Straight=style tour de force; but that is hardly her only triumphant moment in the movie. Add to that that she's Sally Field, had to fight like hell to get the role, gained 25 pounds for it, and, perhaps more importantly to the Academy, worked her butt off (pun intended) to lose it in relatively breakneck speed to look fantastically fit for oscar season - and at her age - and you have a definite oscar contender.

[Kad]

Hopkins and Murray will probably lose out on nominations. Hopkins performance hasn't been very well received, and reaction to Hitchcock has been tepid. If anyone from that film gets a nod, it'll be Helen Mirren.

Murray's film has likewise been met with a shrug, and Murray is notoriously not a fan of award campaigning and is generally prickly when it comes to the whole thing.

[best12bars]

dreaming--I'm not sure how old you are, but Judi Dench wasn't a "legend" when she won for Shakespeare in Love. She was one film into her streak of great film parts, but after she made "A Room With a View" in the '80s, she more or less disappeared from the "global cinema" into Brit-coms and the theatre.

It was her work in Mrs. Brown the year before Shakespeare in Love that first put her into the big league. That was her first Oscar nomination, and she was definitely in the running for the award.

She didn't join the ranks with Maggie Smith and Vanessa Redgrave until after Shakespeare in Love and her win.

She's a legend now, but not then. It was not one of those "I can't believe she's never won an Oscar" scenarios. Aside from A Room With a View, she was known in a couple of Bond flicks for playing "M." That's it ... until Mrs. Brown.

[best12bars]

henrik---I loved Sally in the movie, and was very impressed with her work. But aside from her weight gain (pun intended) I just don't think the part was weighty enough, even in those scenes you pointed out. Fine work, yes. Oscar-winning moments, no.

If she wins, I won't cry, though. I thought she was damn good. I would hardly call her a shoo-in though.

[Kad]

As for Jackman- well, it's hard to say. He's certainly well-liked, and charismatic. He can, and will, campaign and work it. But his body of work has been... slight. The Academy may be hesitant to award Jackman, fearing he'll continue to take slight work.

Speculation at this point is largely pointless. Les Mis right now is caught in its pre-release hype mode. It may very well be a triumph. Or it may just merely be... good. And good is fine... but when you're promised a triumph, well..

[dreaming]

Best-I am in my 30s. I've known who Judi Dench was since I was about five.

Kad-They nominate four or five people. Who would you give those other nominations to? (And I thought Murray's word of mouth was decent.)

[henrikegerman]

Best12 beat me to it, Judi Dench was largely unknown in the U.S. and had done few films before Mrs. Brown, and was still not all that well known at the time Shakespeare in Love. She was a stage legend, mostly in England, who also had a very successful Brit television career which brought her a small cult following among Americans.

She, Jessica Tandy and to a lesser extent Helen Mirren are proof that sometimes great actresses only become big movie stars when they are well into middle age or beyond it.

[best12bars]

I remember hearing the ecstatic hype and gush of applause over Sweeney Todd, too.

Then I saw the film.

EDIT: Don't get me wrong, I'm really pulling for Les Miz. I want this movie to be good and to do well.

But I'll need more than Broadway folks, industry folks, and Aaron Tveit's manager or mother or whatever tweeting away.

I'm trying not to get my hopes too high before I see it.

[Kad]

His word of mouth was decent, but the film has been seen as boring and formulaic. And there's a scene in which FDR gets a handjob, which rubbed a lot of people the wrong way. Pun unintended.

Right now, I think the roster will be Day-Lewis, Phoenix, Washington, Jackman, and John Hawkes (of The Sessions).

Cooper may sneak in over Hawkes. Hopkins may, if the Academy is feeling nostalgic for the real Hitchcock and wants to honor a workhorse actor (even if his prime is behind him).