Does A tony really affect the theatre box office takings?
Look at the first revival of 'La Cage Aux Folles' won the best musical revival but only managed a meager 229 performances and closed three weeks after its triumph.
The second revival of La Cage Aux Folles fared a lot better with 433 performances, but really wasn't a long run despite winning the Tony for best musical revival, best actor (Douglas Hodge), great reviews and stunt cast with Kelsey Grammar.
No it doesn't necessarily make a difference. The "You're a Good Man Charlie Brown" revival closed shortly after it won a few Tonys.
There's a book called "Making it on Broadway" that talks about this a great deal. Excellent collections of interviews from actors who have "made it" on Broadway.
It CAN make a difference, depending on each show's unique circumstances.
For WICKED, it didn't matter that it lost.
But for AVENUE Q, I think winning the Tony helped make it a "must-see" phenomenon. Q opened earlier in the season and, if I remember correctly, was slowing its box office draw until it got Tony attention.
^^^Which makes sense. The most dedicated theatergoers already know the shows that are revived and probably already have opinions about them. Winning a Tony for a revival probably isn't going to change anyone's mind. If you like PORGY AND BESS, you've already seen it or are planning to go; whether it wins "Best Revival" isn't likely to change your mind if you don't like the show.
But with a new musical, winning "Best" may bring it to the attention of people who don't know it and prompt them to go and see it. It's hardly a guarantee, however.
Haven't some shows like The Producers, Hairspray, The Book of Mormon have a big increase in sales the day after their wins? Once winning Best Musical will boost its box office whereas Newsies if it wins probably won't benefit as much as its already doing stellar business anyway.
THE BOOK OF MORMON, THE PRODUCERS, and HAIRSPRAY were already box office smashes pre-Tony win. As for ONCE, it's doing pretty darn well for such a small show on word of mouth alone, but winning Best Musical will definitely help to make it a hard show to get tickets to. NEWSIES is going to get a nice boost in advance sales regardless of it winning the big award because of their performance the night of the Tony Awards ("Oh! Look at those boys dancing!").
Regardless, I think if NEWSIES does win tomorrow night, it will add several more years onto its run (allowing it to run much longer than Mary Poppins, for sure). I think NEWSIES winning will result in a very nice box office increase (increase in tickets prices and demand, so grosses for it will go way up), and definitely it getting a huge national tour (as if it weren't already, but demand will be much higher). A Tony win for NEWSIES would be the last little push it needs to turn it into Disney's next mega hit.
Whatever show wins, they will no doubt experience I nice healthy increase in grosses. But ONCE, in my opinion, has a whole lot more riding on it. The Tony could potentially literally make or break ONCE (in a way). Though many people might oppose this, I don't see the show touring (or at least having a large tour) unless it wins the Tony. I also don't see it lasting past Kazee and Milioti's contracts if it loses (or at least I doubt it makes it 2 full years). All of its momentum will start to decline dramatically, which it what is making it so successful financially at the moment. I could be wrong, but that is my opinion on the current state of the situation.
Generally, the conventional wisdom has Best Musical being the only category that matters as far as box office goes. If a show is on the border of becoming a big hit, Best Musical can put it over the edge. I certainly don't think Memphis would still be running without the statue.
This goes somewhat for plays as well, I remember Red went from success to sell-out smash in the few weeks after it won, as did The Normal Heart.
I really hope Disney don't jack up prices if Newsies win but to be honest, they probably will although not to the same degree as Mormon.
I imagine the Newsies National tour is in the pipeline and I think a Best musical win will help the show if or when Disney decides to transfer it overseas.
I'm sure there will be a slight increase because the theatre is so small (just as they increased the prices once it became a hit) and there would be such high demand. though, they are pretty high at the moment. I wouldn't expect them to ever get higher than THE LION KING's, though. That is a good gage.
I wonder if they'll revoke the discount code or keep it running and simply not issue a new one. The Lion King doesn't do rush, lottery or discounts so the seats are sold at face value. Disney will likely keep the lottery and SRO so people and fans can see the shows for less.
It really makes a differents. In the past 12 years, only one Best Musical winner has not recouped (although Memphis could be the second, if it closes before then).
It's a small show, limited title, feel good kinda thing. I have already received several discount emails, early in the run for that. (for the Summer too). A TONY win will def help it, DISNEY will publicize that to death). It will have a healthy run, then clean up on the road and in schools with lots of little girls cross-dressing.
Now if LOF wins, that will certainly make a differents.
Should they win, idk what they will do about the discount code (I want to think they will keep it bc the buy time expires early July and that would ensure a very healthy advance, but who knows - they could just as easily pull it), but I guarantee they will keep the rush and SRO (Thankfully at the Nederlander they let you lean, whereas I'm told they do not at the Minskoff... lol).
And yes, I actually really hope they get to launch their new "King of New York" marketing campaign! That would be perfect. Hey, they might even do it regardless if it wins Best Musical.
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joined:3/26/08
Posted: 6/9/12 at 08:10pm