Well, yes. The studio says the film cost $61m. We can double that and assume the marketing budget was another $61m, but we have no way of knowing that for certain.
Oh, boy. No one really sits here and thinks the studio is taking HOME 100 million dollars, do they? Seriously. And yes, Deadline is a site for fools. It is hardly "well-respected" by anyone who knows anything about the business and Nikki Finke is especially a twit. And yes again, you have to also factor in the prints and advertising, which in the case of this thing, is no less than twenty million and probably more.
I believe the rule of thumb is if you make back three times your budget it's considered a hit. If you make back only double, it's "breaking even," considering creative accounting and additional expenses like marketing. If you only make back approximately the same as the budget or less, it's a "failure".
Some of the conjectory analysis of the formula in which a studio calculates hit/flop/profit ratios being discussed in this thread are completely off base- suffice to say that there is no straight forward rule of thumb to determine the profit margin on a film as those details are based on a lot of individual budgetary factors that take into consideration things above and beyond the theatrical release of a picture.
Also almost all films today are distributed digitally- the once huge coat of creating "prints" is almost non exist now.
MB : you are 100% correct. Some people here are so way off in the way they are calculating things. Error? Maybe. Eagerness to be a know it all and pass on misinformation ? Probably.
I guarantee that executives at Universal are beyond happy with what this movie has made so far. Not looking into the comparative charts ( since as stated earlier.. was not my intention nor the way the $ people will be looking at things) ; I stand by the threads title. The movie will drop considerably in the coming week. But will continue to make tons of money and the international and dvd ( etc..) money will continue to rain in for a long time.
There is still a cost for digital distribution to movie theaters (usually done on hard drives which can be reused for future films), but it's a fraction of the cost of printing films.
The way films are shown in theatres today is so different than it was just a few decades ago. Not only do you have the billion dollar saver of digital distribution, but it has allowed films to go into a much wider distribution simultaneously. Due to costs, films used to play in several hundred theaters at once, during a wide release. It would roll out slower, and often even a hit film wouldn't reach the secondary markets for months after an initial release. Consequently, mega-hit films would often be in wide release for many months to a year, and in the case of a film like The Sound of Music, it was in general release for several years.
Today, a movie that lingers beyond a couple of months has usually played every conceivable market, because they can open in 2,000 to 4,000 theatres all at once. They make the lion's share of their money in the first few weeks, then drop off considerably and fade away quickly.
It's a whole different mindset and behavior pattern for moviegoers today.
Even with current films, the "wideness" of the distribution can vary drastically.
Take the top three films right now:
#1 - The Hobbit - it's playing in 4,100 theaters in the U.S. #2 - Django Unchained - 3,010 theaters. #3 - Les Miserables - 2,808 theatres.
Makes a difference when you look at the current grosses, too.
"It has much more appeal than even Mamma Mia or The Sound of Music. They are both enjoyable confections, whereas by all accounts this is as much of a blockbuster as the stage show."
I'm sorry but I have to respectfully disagree with this. Most people know Dancing Queen, most people know My Favorite Things, but I can't name you one song from Les Mis except for I Dreamed a Dream, which I only know from the commercials of the movie. Just like Wicked. Yes, it's very popular, but there are those who know nothing about it or its songs.
Even though The Sound of Music will always remain the most successful movie musical of all time (until something beats it someday, which I doubt), I am glad that Les Mis is doing very well in the box office. I have yet to see it, but whenever a new movie musical premieres, I always hope for the best. Great job to the team involved!
Degrassi.. that is all a matter of opinion. I know many straight guys going to L M that stayed away from Mamma Mia. They wouldn't be caught dead doing anything with Dancing Queen.
Is there any prognostication here that isn't basically people talking out of their butts? (I include myself in this. My instinct is that Les Mis will be profitable but not make Mamma Mia! money, but what do I know?) If anyone wants to be the Nate Silver of box office receipts somehow, by all means, go for it, but until that person comes along this mostly feels like people spinning around in circles talking about their feelings.
People do it here all the time with "who will win the Tony" or the Oscar or "who will replace so-and-so as Rapunzel in Cat On a Hot Tin Roof" and "what show will take the Nedermeyer next" and "what TV boo-boo mom will get cancelled first."
"$67.4 million is the projected U.S. gross for the first six days of Les Miz."
Only on Broadwayworld.com would $67.4 million be considered a weak opening -- not to mention the additional $20 million it will pick up on New Year's Eve & New Year's Day.
I can guarantee you the suits at Universal are jizzing themselves over these numbers (and I mean that in a good way)!
We're not saying that it's not a good opening but the original post was that the movie was going to be the "highest grossing movie musical of all time." It's a good opening but is it enough to make it the #1 no, and I don't think that it will $20mil on New Years if it only did $18mil on it's opening day
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joined:8/12/09
Posted: 12/30/12 at 01:32am