Re AEA AGMA SM: I can assure you that the gorgeous powerful soprano that comes out of Anne Hathaway's mouth in I DREAMED A DREAM puts every one of the limpid vocal performances in the film NINE to shame. Sorry, Marion, you're a wonderful actress but comparing Hathaway's singing instrument to yours is like... well, like comparing Hugh Jackman's to Russell Crowe's. No contest.
Im glad to hear Anna Karenina got better reviews than i originally thought.
henrikegerman:your guesses for Best Actress are the same ones I have.But if Knightley gets in,i think wallis will be out.Her age is a big detractor for her.
dreaming: What Pheonix said about the oscar race was really brave.I Kinda respected him for it,but than he took it all back and is now starting his campaign.Now i lost a little bit of respect for him.Weinstein must be far up his ass right now.Eitherway im certain he will still be nominated.He might not win but if he doesn't, i dont think it will be because of what he said.If he does not win because of his remarks than maybe the remarks have some bit of truth to them.
broadway guy-The best actor race is so tight, that Phoenix's previous statements won't be all forgotten I don't think. And if he's nominated and loses, I don't think it is necessarily because of that statement-the category is the toughest it's been in years. (Could we have a tie??? I'd settle for a tie between Daniel Day-Lewis and John Hawkes. My heart says give it to the vet Hawkes who's never won.)
I have the feeling that Knightley won't be nominated, I also have the sense that if Wallis or Chastain don't get in, Rachel Weisz will be the surprise nominee; good for her if she does, it would be well deserved. I also wouldn't be surprised if Weisz picked up some critics prizes and or the Nat. Board of Review award (which last year went to Tilda Swinton for a similarly fine turn as a woman who's lost everything).
I still don't think she'll get a nomination though. I imagine they'd nominate Naomi Watts, Emanuelle Riva, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, or even Judi Dench before Weisz.
Chastain is getting across the board raves for ZERO DARK and the Academy loves nominating kids. At this point, I would guess it'll be Jennifer Lawrence (Silver Linings Playbook) Jessica Chastain (Zero Dark Thirty) Quvenzhane Wallis (Beasts of the Southern Wild) Marion Cotillard (Rust and Bone) Helen Mirren (Hitchcock) or Naomi Watts (The Impossible)
"The year’s second new “Anna Karenina” adaptation—and the worse of the two—opens today (it’s the one directed by Joe Wright and starring Keira Knightley). The better, by far, came out in the spring, under the title “The Deep Blue Sea,” and it has nothing to do with Tolstoy. It was directed by Terence Davies, stars Rachel Weisz, and is nominally adapted from a play by Terence Rattigan. The story is of a woman who’s married to a prominent attorney, has an affair with a dissolute young officer, and comes to grief. Which is to say that the movie has everything to do with Tolstoy—indeed, far more than does Wright’s movie."
It's such a crowded year for lead actress. I still think Lawrence is unbeatable--not based on her performance, but on the crazy buzz she's had since the film premiered--though Chastain poses a threat. Still, most reviews say that her character has no backstory or too many dimensions, so I think she'll definitely get nominated but Lawrence will still win. Cotillard would have a better chance if she hadn't just won and if the film had a stronger chance at other nominations; Hillary Swank won five years after BOYS DON'T CRY but that's because her film was the Best Picture winner (I still can't believe she won over one of Kate Winslet's most fascinating roles or even Annette Bening's comedic turn, but that's neither here nor there). I think Wallis will get in, Riva has the raves but I worry the Academy will nominate one of the bigger stars instead. I really do hope Naomi Watts can somehow get in, she should be a winner by now, it's unbelievable that she only has one Oscar nomination. Knightley has a chance of getting in, but she's looking really weak right now given the mixed bag that the reviews for ANNA KARENINA have been so far. It's too strong of a year so some performances will inevitably be left out. On the lead actor front, I really do think Joaquin Phoenix should win. Day-Lewis, Washington and Hawkes are all great and magnificent in their own film, but Phoenix gives the kind of performance that legends are made of, it's the kind of thing that will be studied in years to come. Some critics compared him to Brando in STREETCAR and it's hard to disagree...interestingly enough, Brando didn't actually win the Oscar for that performance so Phoenix might be on the same boat.
dreaming:Your right,Best actor is very strong this year.I dont think Anyone is a total lock for a nomination except DDL.I can't really see a tie Happening but It would be really cool if of all people Hawkes takes the gold. I have not seen "the sessions" so I can't offer much input in that area but The complaint i have heard from Movie Buffs is that the movie is to short for hawkes to really show off his oscar possibilities and give DDL a run for his money.
There is also the question of Hitchcock.How good are Anthony's chances? I have not seen it yet but im looking forward to it.
Saw Hitchcock this past weekend. I now believe I have seen everything but Pi. Hitchcock was entertaining. Anthony Hopkins was fine. Helen Mirren was wonderful. The movie was enjoyable. I really doubt it will do anything in awards season.
A friend who's seen it says that Jackman is overshadowed by strong supporting performances from Anne Hathaaway and Eddie Redmayne. Just putting that out there.
I seem to say this every year, but right now it seems this statement is more true this year than it has been in the past few years: this is one of the most exciting Best Picture races in recent memory!
BEST PICTURE:
Likely: ARGO LES MISERABLES LIFE OF PI LINCOLN SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK ZERO DARK THIRTY
Dark Horses: ANNA KARENINA BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD CLOUD ATLAS THE DARK KNIGHT RISES DJANGO UNCHAINED HITCHCOCK THE HOBBIT: AN UNEXPECTED JOURNEY THE MASTER MOONRISE KINGDOM THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER
Slim Chance: FLIGHT THE HUNGER GAMES HYDE PARK ON THE HUDSON THE IMPOSSIBLE THE SESSIONS SKYFALL
A lot of what I listed in the "Dark Horse" category will soon fall into the "Slim Chance" category. I hope THE PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER gets nominated, but with a crowded competition field, it's looking less and less a probability.
It's such an exciting year for Best Picture.No Movie has it in the bag.Anything can happen.Makes this so much more fun!
sue1863: I wouldn't count crowe out just yet.He is getting mixed reviews but once the embargo lifts he could end up getting great reviews ( or bad ones) we can't really say yet. I also think it just comes down to taste.some critics liked his voice and some critics did not. Both views can be right.Some people don't even like Jackman's voice.Crazy right??! I think crowe will be recognized more for his acting.I think the acaademy will also give him brownie points for commiting to such a risky movie. He shares a moment with Gavroche that is heart breaking.That tells me that crowe has probally really captured the character.The Moment that I am hearing about may be lightining in a bottle. Eddie is getting great reviews which could possibly lead to a nomination, but crowe's part is so much more meatier.I am glad that eddie is getting great reviews. If either one gets a nom it will probally be crowe but if eddie sneaks in there and takes it from crowe, more power to him. I dont thnk both will get in but it's possible.If both got in than ARKIN would probally be out.which im totall fine with.
^ Having seen Les Miz, my take is Eddie Redmayne's stunning performance has every likelihood of getting a supporting nom, and Russell Crowe's has virtually none. Size of part is immaterial here; one actor dominates every scene he appears in, one actor fades from view as you're watching him.
I don't think Hathaway was saying she had never listened to Patti LuPone's version, it sounds more like she didn't listen to LuPone's version recently until after she finished the movie. I'm so excited that she might be nabbing an Oscar for this role. Apparently Dave Karger (who had been an avid supporting of SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK) switched his prediction after seeing LES MIZ. GoldDerby
I love Paul Thomas Anderson's movies, but I thought THE MASTER was one of his weakest efforts. A great premise turned into a stagnant film experience. The three performances should be nominated, but I wouldn't be at all surprised if the film itself is shut out of the Best Picture race. At this stage in the game, my vote would go to ARGO.
I wish PERKS OF BEING A WALLFLOWER would be getting more of the Oscar buzz it deserves. What a great movie.
I agree Argo is the best film I've seen this year and, while I'm not a fan of Paul Thomas Anderson's recent efforts, I especially didn't like The Master and also wouldn't be surprised if it does not get a best picture nomination.
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joined:10/9/12
Posted: 11/26/12 at 03:56pm