Les Mis set to be highest grossing movie musical of all time.

[jo]

It looks like Les Miserables, the movie musical, is going to China...and Chinese audiences will get to hear the original voices ( not dubbed).

http://english.cri.cn/6666/2013/01/24/1261s745119.htm

Release date is February 28, 2013, some 10 1/2 years after a successful limited run of the stage musical, with Colm himself reprising his Valjean role then. Will they recognize him as the Bishop this time?

[bobs3]

Let's take a look at that statement. China has a population of over 1.3 billion. If in a limited run of the stage production with Colm Wilkinson less than 0.001% of the population saw him perform Valjean -- I think the likelihood of anyone pointing at the screen and saying "Colm Wilkinson!" is next to nil.

[DAME]

At the risk of being accused of a silly bump. I find this kind of thing fascinating and find it even more so reading it from people here as opposed to the sites. Some of you.. like Best12 and others really know your sh*t and it is a pleasure to dscuss BO with you.

[theaternut]

About to become 3rd highest grossing musical. Can it still make it to number 1 ? Still has many places to open.
http://broadwayworld.com/article/LES-MIS-Hits-300-Million-To-Become-Third-Highest-Grossing-Movie-Musical-20130126

[Dave19]

What people don't realize is that the world population doubles every 50 years.

In 1800 there lived 1 billion people on the earth. In 1900 there lived 2 billion people on the earth. In the 1950's there lived 3 billion people on the earth. In 2000 there lived 6 billion people on the earth and now there live 7,2 billion people on the earth.

So in 1 century it went from doubling in 100 years to doubling in 50 years, so even that ratio is growing.

My point is, in the 70's when "Grease" premiered, there only lived 3,5 billion people on the earth. That amount has more than doubled today, now Les Miserables is playing.

So I would say Grease is the most successful musicalfilm of all time, because although there lived just 3,5 billion people on the world when it came out, it grossed $395 million , Mamma Mia with 7 billion people on the world grossed $609.8 million, which is not twice as much.


"Highest grossing" in 2080, when there live 14 billion people in the world will have a completely different meaning than today. It doesn't say anything if you don't take this into consideration.

[Wynbish]

Wow...

[chrisampm2]

"It doesn't say anything [i]f you don't take the population into consideration."

Sure, it says something. It says it's "the highest grossing." You can discuss lots of factors like percentage of the population or rate of inflation or the rise in entertainment options.

Still, gross is a stat that still has meaning without a discussion of context.

[Dave19]

I see your point, but to present a list like this, with a top 3 of numbers that cannot be compared, and therefore calling one film "more successful" than the other, is very misleading to people, the context and the actual population is what matters most in this case.

"......on the list of most successful movie musicals, making it the third most successful musical ever. MAMMA MIA with $609.8 million, and GREASE with $395 million take the top two spots"

It only takes a simple calculation to see Mamma Mia is actually the runner up, in terms of "successful".

[DAME]

I am just going by the current stats. If not we can keep going back in time.

[Jay Lerner-Z]

Dave19 can not be a real person.

[DAME]

Wondering if metropolis10111 will be showing his BS face again.

[Jungle Red]

I never understood why they track movies by the amount of money instead of ticket sales.

You also have to take in inflation. I'm not 100% positive if it's true, but if you believe what they tell you in film school, GONE WITH THE WIND is still the most watched movie in the world.

What I'm saying is, you can't say "Well, GREASE made x amount of dollars and Les Mis made y amount of dollars, and that makes it more successful." when tickets were only a buck or two, as opposed to the $12 I paid. Or would've paid, had I not got a free pass.

[CarlosAlberto]

Yes, alright, enough already I agree that Les Mis is highly gross. Goodnight.

[Dave19]

Jungle Red, exactly.

So if they want to compare Les Mis to Grease, they need to split the population in 2 (because it has literally doubled today) AND take into consideration that tickets were only 2 dollars back then and 12 dollars today. So divided by 6. So $12 for Grease meant that 6 people watched it and $12 for Les Mis meant that 1 person watched it. And 6 out of 3,5 billion is more than 1 out of 7.2 billion.

Only then you can make a comparison, or a top 3 of "successful films".

This whole article "les mis more successful because it made more" is nonsense. With that theory any crappy film in 2080 will be a successful film because the population is around 14 billion by then and the tickets cost 25 dollars.

[Wynbish]

And of course, you approached this data from a neutral opinion, right? Or completely not...

[Dave19]

No, from facts.

Please do your research and join the discussion :)

[metropolis10111]

Still here... still waiting for it to be #1.. still don't see that happening.....

[Wynbish]

Aww, thanks for the invitation. I may do just that after I (finally) see the movie today.

With a ticket price of 8 bucks, I wonder how much of that will go in Russell Crowe's bank account. Dave, do you know?

[carousel94]

Here's my $0.02, for what it's worth. I find this acute analysis of which is the more successful to be interesting but humorous, as both films are successful in their own acheivement. What will happen if one is or isn't the more successful? Grease was a phenomenon in its time and no one can dispute that. Les Misérables is taking in quite a good deal of money, and just about every non-musical theatre person I've talked to who's seen it has really enjoyed it. They list many reasons why they liked or even loved it, including (believe it or not) Russell Crowe, so it is making an impact.

When taking into account these films at the box office, you should also look at the competition upon release and what percent of the country/world's population was able to see the film. In today's media climate I think it would be difficult for any musical to achieve the success Grease had in the late 70s.

That being said, the only common attribute these two properties share is that their characters sing. Other than that they are completely different and could (possibly should) be classified in separate genres.

[best12bars]

It does seem realistic that Les Mis will catch up to Mamma Mia! in the next several weeks before it ends its domestic run, or at least come close to it. it's only $10 million away from that now. $134 million for Les Mis, and $144 million for Mamma Mia! That's assuming it stays in the theatres for another month.

It's not realistic to think Les Mis will catch up to the international grosses for Mamma Mia! though. Les MIs is currently at $150 million, and Mamma Mia!'s international take was an overwhelming $465 million (way more than even Chicago).

It's also not realistic that Les Mis will earn as much as Chicago did here in the U.S. $170.6 million. It's still $36 million away from Chicago's grosses. As the weekly intake continues to drop, it would need to run in the theatres for another seven or eight months, which it won't do, especially with the DVD and BD releases rumored for March 19th.

[Dave19]

"In today's media climate I think it would be difficult for any musical to achieve the success Grease had in the late 70s."

Interesting point. It is true that there is a lot of competition now, and the internet, more cinema's, more films, more music styles, so people have much more choice in whatever they'd like to be interested in. People's tastes and interests are more divided than ever before.
So in order to determine "success", all of these things need to be taken into consideration, including the growth of the population and inflation. So I agree, it would be very difficult to achieve the success of Grease, but by saying "Les Mis" did it because it made more today, makes no sense.

"That being said, the only common attribute these two properties share is that their characters sing. Other than that they are completely different and could (possibly should) be classified in separate genres."

I agree, 2 completely different films, but they are both musicals. And this "top 3 successful movie musical list" is about that.

[best12bars]

There are so many other factors besides audience size and ticket prices.

There were no other options coming along six months (or less) after a movie was released back in 1978 (like Grease).

Few if any people had HBO, which showed mostly live sporting events back then. Few if any people had VHS tapes. There was no Home Entertainment market to speak of at all.

You saw a movie in the movie theatre, or you missed it. You couldn't rent it later on. Rentals weren't around yet.

[Dave19]

"It's also not realistic that Les Mis will earn as much as Chicago did here in the U.S. $170.6 million. It's still $36 million away from Chicago's grosses"

I never realized how successful Chicago actually was.
Because, that was 11 years ago and believe it or not, back then there lived only 6.2 billion people on the world as opposed to 7.2 billion people today. So that even adds to the success of Chicago.

Also, in 2002 there were plenty of other options and films.

[Dave19]

Double post

[best12bars]

Ticket prices were also lower ten years ago.

"Chicago" was a huge hit both critically and at the box office. After it won the Oscar for Best Picture, it also got a boost of about $10 million.

[Kad]

When talking of grosses for films that had their initial theatrical release a substantial amount of time ago- does the number now include re-releases and sales from VHS/DVD/etc?