How long do you think the long-running shows have left?

[mjohnson2]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 4:40pm

Hi all,
For any show that has been running for 5+ years on broadway, how long do you think they have until closing? It could be a year, it could be 25 years. What do you think?
I'd say Chicago and Mamma Mia have less than 3 years left each.

[bwayphreak234]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 4:44pm

Mamma Mia! is definitely nearing the end if they can't pick up their numbers.
Chicago will be fine for a while. Cheap to run. Stunt casting.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 4:45pm

Lion King, Phantom and Wicked aren't likely to close anytime soon. Mamma Mia! I think is on shaky grounds as its grosses haven't been great and the move to the Broadhurst hasn't helped sales at all,

[Sauja]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 5:03pm

It's an interesting question. It does seem like Mamma Mia and Chicago might be on shakier ground than they've ever been before. Low as the cost of running Chicago is and high as the grosses are at holidays, I still think it must be nearing the end in the next couple years. Mamma Mia seems to have been hit hard by the move, which is a surprise (at least to me).

I'd guess that of the longest running shows, they'll close in this order:
Mamma Mia
Chicago
Jersey Boys
(and then much, much later)
Phantom
Wicked
The Lion King

I mean...those last three could still be running in 15 years, so we're talking crazy shots in the dark.

[mjohnson2]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 5:32pm

I actually would say that Wicked will close after the Lion King, considering that it is filling a larger theatre consistently and just recently broke the box office record again. Also, I think Rock of Ages could have a longer life, but it depends on the Second Stage Theatre buying the Helen Hayes.

[LizzieCurry]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 5:34pm

Jersey Boys hasn't been doing well (relatively), but will probably get a boost from the movie that it can ride for a while.

[disneybroadwayfan22]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 5:45pm

Mamma Mia should have closed in October, to be honest. It had a good run. i guess the fact that a new show is in their theater makes new people confused and makes them think that it's gone.

[Jonwo]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 5:49pm

Jersey Boys will likely et a boost from the film but I imagine its at least meeting running costs so its safe for now.



Updated On: 2/14/14 at 05:49 PM

[Pammylicious]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 5:55pm

Book of Mormon will run forever

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 6:24pm

"I mean...those last three could still be running in 15 years, so we're talking crazy shots in the dark."

I agree, it is hard to imagine any of the closing in 15 yrs but if I had to place money on one of them finally closing it would be "Phantom".

[FutureDirector]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 11:00pm

Mormon is only fine until south park stops being big.
Phantom doesn't do well during non Holliday times. I say it has less than 10 years left.
Mamma Mia has dropped capacity even after moving to a small theatre. the move did the exact opposite of that they wanted it to do.
Rock of Ages is also on shaky ground. It only sells well to tourists and seeing as the mediocre movie buzz it got they predict 2 more years
Jersey boys is a hard one, it depends on how the movie buzz is. If it dosen't hit big with the movie the show will be gone in a year or 2. It plays in the bottom 5 capacity wise most weeks
Lion King and Wicked will probably be around for another 20 years+ seeing as in the last decade neither has not been in the top 5 best selling shows each week ever.

[Patti LuPone FANatic]

Posted: 2/14/14 at 11:10pm

It is hard to imagine Broadway without "Chicago." However, at some point, it is bound to happen. I wish the producers would tweak the show to a certain degree. At the very least, they could offer the role of Velma to more than just one person. Having one person monopolize that role becomes boring after a while. Other ladies can do justice to the role (for example, Leigh Zimmerman). Anyone but A.F.W.

[yankeefan7]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 12:04am

"Chicago will be fine for a while. Cheap to run. Stunt casting"

The stunt casting is why I would love to see it finally close.

Updated On: 2/15/14 at 12:04 AM

[Lucy Harbin]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 1:44am

I truly think there's a strong possibility The Lion King will still be running on Broadway beyond the lifespan of all of us posting on or reading this thread.

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 2:36am

"Mormon is only fine until south park stops being big."

I really don't think South Park has all that much to do with the success and popularity of The Book of Mormon. While the show still has some cachet as part of the pop culture idiom, I would say that the success of The Book of Mormon has far eclipsed South Park in terms of the audiences it has been able to capture. There are definitely a lot of people seeing the show who have never previously seen an episode of South Park and probably won't be tuning in to catch an episode after seeing the show. Beyond the vulgarity of it (which I'm not decrying as a bad thing), there is something in the show that is resonating with a lot of people. It would not have been able to maintain its momentum if it were just the shock value factor of the songs like "Hasa Diga Eebowai."

[bobs3]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 3:05am

"Also, I think Rock of Ages could have a longer life, but it depends on the Second Stage Theatre buying the Helen Hayes.

Second Stage is using that income from ROCK OF AGES to pay off the mortgage (reportedly $10 million). If the show ever gets to the point that they can't meet the rent they will be evicted and Second Stage will start their season in the theater.

[SweetLips]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 6:29am

Not to be disrespectful Disneybroadwayfan but are people really that silly they don't look up where it[Manna Mia] is playing and go see it in whatever theatre? Isn't the audience mostly out-of-towners and visitors/tourists and not people who walk past the theatre every day and say'must have closed'?

Updated On: 2/15/14 at 06:29 AM

[JuanValjean72]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 9:54am

I think Chicago has another year or so left, unless they cast some really big names with actual talent. Wicked and Lion King have well over another 10 years left in them, I think Book of Mormon is a similar case. And it's only around this time of year that Phantom doesn't do all that great, but over this entire summer it made over a million a week.

[mjohnson2]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 3:17pm

I think at the very least, Chicago will run until it surpasses Cats in shows. An off-broadway transfer could also be very useful for it, seeing as it would be the perfect time to rejuvenate the piece.

[Brave Sir Robin2]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 3:21pm

I think Mamma Mia and Chicago would be the next to close. Unless it picks up, I could see Mamma Mia leave in the next two years. Chicago I give another five years. If it wasn't for the movie, I think Jersey Boys would close by December, but look at what a film version did financially for Chicago! Anything's possible.

[AEA AGMA SM]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 6:51pm

"An off-broadway transfer could also be very useful for it, seeing as it would be the perfect time to rejuvenate the piece."

Chicago, despite being a very scaled back revival in terms of the physical production, is still a fairly large show and would have an incredibly difficult time sustaining itself with an open-ended run Off-Broadway. Just onstage you have 19 in the cast, plus swings, and a 15 piece band, not to mention the crew. If it moved Off-Broadway it would undoubtedly come with some pretty massive downsizing and it would hardly look rejuvenated.

[fingerlakessinger]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 7:00pm

I feel like they're going to try and hold out PHANTOM till at least the 30th Anniversary. The numbers during holiday seasons are keeping it afloat, along with the fact that its still doing decently well during the off season.

LION KING has at least another ten years in it. If FROZEN does ever get to Broadway, it might shift focus from the lions to the ice queen slightly.
WICKED I think has a good 15 to 20 years in it. Especially if they make it into a fantastic film.
As others have said, MAMMA MIA is gonna check out within a year. There is no way the theater owners will let them perform to empty houses like they have been.
CHICAGO might close up shop within the next two years or so. Stunt casting isn't really doing the trick anymore.
JERSEY BOYS will probably have another three years added on due to the movie.
THE BOOK OF MORMON definitely has another five years in it, at least. Especially if they make it into a film...which will probably be a massive hit and propel the show even further.
To be honest, I think POTO, WICKED and LION KING are gonna be the long, long runners with BOM being another potential long runner.

[Phantom of London]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 7:31pm

Wicked and The Lion King will run for years, children who aren't born yet will be taking their grandchildren, didn't both shows hit $3m recently? That doesn't include merchandise which both shows sell a shed load. Then when one of these show hits a peak, they both can start to offer discounts and cater for coach parties.

Didn't The New York Times report the the Phantom costs $600k a week to run? This show does well above this in the tourist season, Phantom runs a very slick operation both sides of the Atlantic.

Updated On: 2/15/14 at 07:31 PM

[Jonwo]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 7:40pm

I think Phantom would be more likely to downsize and move theatres rather than close.

[mjohnson2]

Posted: 2/15/14 at 7:58pm

I highly doubt that. The Majestic just works so well for Phantom that it couldn't be anywhere else.