I started a threat not too long ago about Tony predictions. I'd guess that your best play noms will turn out to be....
Coast of Utopia Frost/Nixon Radio Golf Coram Boy
It's a little early for Coram and Radio Golf to get the full nod as they haven't been reviewed yet, but if either of the two slip up in the press I'd swap in "Little Dog Laughed".
As per my other thread....
for Actors... Langella is getting as close to a lock as one could hope to do against Christopher Plummer.
Actresses... Eve Best. Maybe Julie White (If "Little Dog" was running now she'd have a much stronger chance).
Supporting Actress... Plimpton? Pinkins? if Coram scores Xanthe Elbrick.
Supporting Male... Crudup most likely. Kunken (F/N) ? John Mahoney?