Broadway's Barometer - What Can We Expect for the 1st Quarter of 2009?

There are two times of year in the Broadway season that you can always count on traditional dips - at the end of the summer (what we refer to as ‘Back to School’) and then the January slump, which follows the Holiday Season, when tourists go home and everyone sits tight and assesses their economics, because taxes are due and Spring break is a long 3 months away. This impacts not only the theatre, but also restaurants, hotels and other areas of the travel industry. New York hotels, restaurants and nightlife however tend to benefit from conventions all year round, so it’s Broadway that takes the biggest 'hit.'

This year will be of particular interest due to the economic situation, which makes the phrase "more for your  hard earned dollar" even harder, if the dollar simply isn't there. It's going to be tough for everyone and early 2009's closings include 13, A New Musical, All My Sons, Boeing-Boeing, Dividing The Estate, Grease, Gypsy, Hairspray, The Seagull, Monty Python's Spamalot, Spring Awakening, Young Frankenstein, Equus and Speed-The-Plow (along with scheduled seasonal runs of White Christmas, Liza's at the Palace! and SLAVA'S SNOWSHOW)...some of which have recouped and others not. 

One could argue, that in some cases, a particular number of these shows would have closed anyway…but there's no question that what went on in the 4th quarter in both America's and the world's economy simply fueled the hot coals – and turned a bad situation worse, making it a "three alarm fire." Add to this that we still have a country at war and, as excited as we are about the new leader of our country, it'll be a hard climb up and a rough road ahead for everyone.

For many theatergoers, it brings up the question of “how essential is theatre” (given a budget of any kind) and I think we all know the answer to that, but it certainly is hard to keep it from going into a category which is truly suffering - that of "luxury goods."

One of the key things to watch, if you do watch the grosses weekly here on BroadwayWorld.com, is that the REAL story can be told in "the average ticket price." That will usually disclose internal discounting, TKTS and other types of offers that exist in any way that the current marketers can strategize, shedding light on a show’s true health.

One of the most popular and successful examples of protecting January - March sales came years ago when Cameron Mackintosh and his team, headed at that time by Marc Thibodeau, gave birth to the idea of “The Winter Sale” and sold orchestra seats, in advance, for a reduced price - no waiting, no conditions, no standing in line at the half-price booth. This was an immediate success and secured their break-evens for those crucial weeks and everything else was said to be ‘icing on the cake.’ This was an advertising event and piece of marketing that would be imitated and copied for years, but was never quite as successful because Mackintosh, at that time had the "real estate" and his top brand selling shows - Les Miserables, Miss Saigon and The Phantom of the Opera.